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Air War in Ukraine

Launch of an ATACMS missile from an M270 MLRS launcher. Illustrative photo by the US Army.


ATACMS and Oreshnik Missiles in Action

Text: Miro Barič

 

The period of air warfare in Ukraine covered in this report (November 1 to November 30) might seem quieter at first glance. Only one confirmed aerial loss occurred between both sides. However, numerous events related to the air war took place, with the most significant ones being the use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine and Oreshnik missiles by Russia.

 The sole confirmed aerial loss during this period occurred on Thursday, November 7. In the Kursk region, a group of Russian helicopters took off to support ground forces but was intercepted by Ukrainian FPV drones. A Kamov Ka-52 from the 15th Army Aviation Brigade was hit and destroyed. Both crew members ejected; the navigator was injured, but the pilot, Ilya Noskov, did not survive.

 Another loss for Russian helicopter aviation occurred on Sunday, November 10, although this time on the ground. At the Klin airbase in the Moscow region, a saboteur set a Mi-24 helicopter on fire, causing severe damage. Video footage shows the burning helicopter, indicating that its engines had been removed—suggesting it was either undergoing repairs or was already decommissioned.

 On Tuesday, November 26, an incident occurring over 1,300 kilometers from the front lines in Bashkortostan, Russia, was closely tied to the war in Ukraine. That night, a civilian Antonov An-2R operated by Rusavia (registration RA-40935) took off from Ufa Airport. With two pilots and a photographer aboard, its mission was to take infrared photographs of a heating pipeline in the city of Salavat at the request of a geophysical company.

 Approaching Salavat at 300 meters altitude with its navigation lights on, the aircraft was mistaken for an attacking Ukrainian drone. Sirens sounded in the city, warning of an air raid, and the defense system of a local chemical plant opened fire. The pilots immediately reported being under "friendly" fire, which soon ceased.

 The An-2R returned to Ufa Airport, and initial reports stated it had been hit by only three projectiles. However, video footage after landing revealed numerous bullet holes. High-caliber machine gun rounds (likely 14.5 mm) punctured various parts of the fuselage and wings, while at least two anti-aircraft cannon grenades struck the aircraft. One tore through a floor beam, while the other created a hole several decimeters wide in a wing. Miraculously, no one was injured, though one crew member's suit was pierced by a bullet. No reports mentioned damage to the crew's undergarments, particularly for the one with the torn clothing.

 Evidence of the previous losses also surfaced. The Military Watch website published Maxar satellite images showing Kirovskoe airbase in occupied Crimea. These images, taken between 2022 and 2023, revealed up to ten disassembled helicopter airframes without rotors. The aircraft included four Mi-28s, three Mi-8s, two Mi-24s, and one unidentified model. These were likely helicopters damaged during the war in Ukraine. They could represent claims by Ukrainian defenders that were never confirmed as the official kills.

 On the Ukrainian side, one confirmed loss occurred during the entire month: on Friday, November 22, a MiG-29 was destroyed by an Iskander missile at Dnipro Airfield.

 On November 7, pilot Ilya Noskov did not survive the destruction of the Russian Ka-52 helicopter.

A Russian Mi-24 helicopter in flames after a saboteur's attack on November 10 at the Klin base near Moscow.

New images from the crash site of the Russian Mi-24VM helicopter, shot down by a Stinger missile on June 16, 2022, in the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region. The aircraft, marked RF-91410 with tail number "blue 30," belonged to the 487th Separate Helicopter Regiment. Lieutenant Colonel Sergei Gundorov and Lieutenant Dmitry Yevdokimov did not survive the attack.

A Maxar satellite image shows helicopter wrecks at the Kirovskoe base in Crimea.

A video frame shows damage to the wing of an An-2R, which fell victim to "friendly fire“ on November 26 over the city of Salavat in the Bashkir region of Russia.

On November 22, an Iskander missile destroyed a Ukrainian MiG-29 at the Dnipro airport.


Authorization to attack

 The relatively little losses might suggest that November was a quiet month. However, the reality is quite the opposite. The most significant event of the month occurred neither in Ukraine, nor on the European continent—it was the U.S. presidential election won by Donald Trump. Both Trump and those in his circle made several pivotal, often contradictory statements regarding the war in Ukraine. Trump himself claimed he would end the conflict quickly. The world now awaits to see how he intends to achieve this.

 The U.S. presidential election is somewhat linked to another crucial development. Ukraine had long sought permission to use Western weapons for strikes on Russian territory. It finally received this authorization, albeit with significant restrictions. The approval applied only to certain weapons (e.g., 227 mm GMLRS rockets launched from HIMARS with an 80 km range) and only for specific border regions of Russia. Kyiv repeatedly requested permission to strike with longer-range missiles as well. However, President Joe Biden granted authorization to use tactical ballistic ATACMS missiles (610 mm caliber, with a range of up to 300 km depending on the version) only after the election—effectively too late.

 Why? Russia had long anticipated this move and relocated as much as possible out of range. This included pulling aircraft from bases near the Ukrainian border. Moreover, Ukraine reportedly received only about 50 ATACMS missiles, a small supply. Some have already been used in at least eight known attacks on targets in occupied Ukrainian territories. This means that for strikes on Russian soil, Ukraine cannot afford to waste them and must carefully choose its targets.

 Additionally, U.S. authorization is limited to the Kursk region and its immediate surroundings, making this more of a symbolic gesture than a strategic breakthrough.

 An ATACMS missile is being launched from an M142 HIMARS launcher. Illustrative photo by the US Army.


Key Targets

 Despite their limited supply, Ukraine acted decisively, launching its first attack on Russian territory during the night of November 18–19, the same day news of U.S. authorization was announced in the media. The target was a munitions depot in Karachev, Bryansk region, approximately 110 km from the Ukrainian border. The depot stored missile and artillery ammunition used by Russian forces in the Kursk region.

 The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that it intercepted five of six incoming missiles, claiming that falling debris caused only a minor fire. However, Ukrainian sources stated that eight ATACMS missiles were launched, with only two intercepted. Videos filmed by locals seemed to support Ukraine’s claims, capturing raging fires and secondary explosions throughout the depot.

 Subsequent ATACMS strikes have been sparse, suggesting Ukraine is carefully selecting only the most critical targets due to its limited missile stockpile. These attacks, however, have had a significant impact. For instance, after Russia relocated its Su-34 fighter-bombers out of ATACMS range, the intensity of Russian glide-bomb attacks dropped by approximately 50%. This is attributed to the longer flight times required to reach the front line and return, increased fuel consumption, and higher maintenance demands due to wear and tear.

 Another major consequence of these strikes is that following the U.S., Britain also authorized the use of its Storm Shadow missiles against the Russian territory. The first such strike occurred in broad daylight on Wednesday, November 20. The target was the former Marjino Palace near Kursk, now operating as a spa. An underground bunker in the eastern part of the site was the focus of the attack, with the missiles’ penetrating warheads aimed at this fortified facility.

 This was undoubtedly a high-priority target, as evidenced by Ukrainian reconnaissance drones operating deep in Russian territory to document the aftermath. The drones recorded three hits on surrounding buildings and nine explosions directly at the bunker site, later capturing the complex's destruction. Unofficial Russian reports stated 18 soldiers were killed and 33 wounded, most of whom were officers from various Russian command structures. Among the wounded were reportedly three North Korean officers.

 The use of 12 missiles emphasises the strategic importance of this target. It also indicates that Ukraine still has at least six operational Su-24 aircraft, the only Ukrainian planes capable of deploying Storm Shadow missiles.

 

 A Ukrainian drone captured the Storm Shadow missile attack on the Marjino estate near Kursk.

Ukrainian Su-24 aircraft are capable of carrying the Storm Shadow missiles.


Show of Power

 Russia had previously declared it would not leave Western missile strikes unanswered. Its response came on Thursday, November 21, in the form of an attack on the city of Dnipro. Seven Kh-101 missiles, one Kinzhal, and an unidentified missile targeted the Pivdenmash rocket manufacturing plant. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted six Kh-101 missiles, but three projectiles struck Dnipro.

 Regarding the unidentified missile, Ukrainian officials initially speculated it might have been an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), marking the first combat use of such a weapon. This claim, however, was not substantiated. Later that evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the missile was a new intermediate-range ballistic missile called "Oreshnik." It was launched from the Astrakhan region, approximately 900 km from Dnipro.

 The Oreshnik missile reportedly reached a speed of Mach 10 and carried six warheads, each dispersing six submunitions—totaling 36 small warheads. These warheads, however, lacked explosives, suggesting the attack was either a mere show of strength or intended to rely on the kinetic impact of high-speed projectiles.

 Putin also claimed that serial production of the Oreshnik had already begun, though this appeared to be more propaganda than reality. Truth is, that the Oreshnik is a modified version of the RS-26 Rubezh experimental ICBM developed in 2011. Despite four successful tests, the RS-26 never entered production due to high costs and a lack of new technologies.

 The Oreshnik seems to be an experimental prototype created by removing one stage from the RS-26, reducing its range and reclassifying it as an intermediate-range missile. The original RS-26 was highly inaccurate, an acceptable flaw for nuclear warheads but problematic for conventional payloads. The addition of multiple warheads with submunitions aimed to increase the likelihood of hitting targets, but this approach proved ineffective. Satellite images of the Pivdenmash plant post-attack revealed no significant damage.

 Ultimately, this was an expensive demonstration of power with no tangible military effect. However, its indirect implications are notable. Even without serial production, Russia can feign preparations for launching another such missile. These preparations are difficult to conceal, prompting Ukrainian air defenses to respond. By observing the redeployment of defenses, Russia can then target less protected or undefended locations with conventional means.

 The Oreshnik also provided a strategic lesson. U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that Russia was informed in advance of the decision to permit Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against the Russian territory. Similarly, Kremlin informed the U.S. ahead of its use of the intermediate-range ballistic missile. This exchange demonstrates that communication channels between the two nations remain functional, helping to prevent misunderstandings and disproportionate responses that could escalate tensions.

Russians claim that the Oreshnik missile is in large scale production, however it remains it its experimental stage.

This month, Russians claimed numerous "military" targets...


F-16 pilot traning

 Amidst regular Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, the Ukrainian Air Force is beginning to utilize F-16 fighter jets effectively. Although Ukraine currently has a limited number of these aircraft, their impact is evident – during individual attacks, they typically shoot down about 10 Russian missiles. The first delivery of six aircraft from Denmark was a significant step, although one of them has already been destroyed. Another delivery of six aircraft is expected but has not materialized yet.

 The key factor in deploying the F-16s is pilot training, which is still ongoing. The Netherlands, another donor of F-16s, has moved its aircraft to Romania, where Ukrainian pilots are being trained.

 However, Ukraine's prospects in this area are very promising. In the United Kingdom, more than 200 Ukrainian pilots have already completed basic training on propeller aircraft. Some of them are continuing their training in France on Alpha Jet training jets. These planes have been specially modified to make their cockpits as similar as possible to those of the F-16, making the transition to advanced fighters easier.

 After completing training on Alpha Jets, the next step is training on the actual F-16s. This takes place not only in Romania but also in Denmark, with the participation of the Norwegian instructors. From 2025, the training will shift to Portugal, with Norway already having relocated its F-16s to Romania and Portugal for this purpose.

 In addition to training, Norway is providing financial support for arming the F-16s. During the observed period, it allocated $119 million to ensure that the Ukrainian aircraft are equipped to perform their missions effectively.

 The training process for the F-16s not only enhances Ukraine's defensive capabilities but also demonstrates that Western nations are committed to supporting Ukraine with both technology and the necessary expertise.

One of six F-16AM fighter jets Denmark supplied to Ukraine.

Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun in Ukrainian service.

Ukrainian emergency rescue workers remove debris from an Kh-55 cruise missile.

Training of the Ukrainian soldiers with a Mi-8 helicopter.

01/2025
Info EDUARD 01/2025

INFO Eduard is a monthly scale model-historical magazine published in Czech and English by Eduard Model Accessories since 2010. The magazine is available for free on the Triobo platform and can be downloaded in PDF format. Eduard is a manufacturer of plastic models and accessories with over 30 years of tradition. Throughout its history in the plastic modeling industry, Eduard has become one of the world's leaders. Further details about the company and its product range can be found at www.eduard.com. You can subscribe to the INFO magazine and receive product information for free at: https://www.eduard.com/cs/info-eduard/

 

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