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Air War in Ukraine

Ground preparation of a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet.


Russian Ammunition Depots Explode, Sarmat Missile Lost

 Text: Miro Barič


Another month has passed, and here is a summary of the events in Ukraine from September 1 to September 30. This period was remarkable for Ukraine’s air force, as it did not lose a single aircraft or helicopter in the air or on the ground. The same cannot be said for the Russian side, which lost several ammunition depots to Ukrainian airstrikes—and even its latest intercontinental ballistic missile during a test.

 

On the ground front, Russian forces continued their offensive in the Donetsk region. Toward Pokrovsk, their advance stalled completely for a few days, seemingly due to exhaustion after their earlier human-wave attacks, which came at a cost of high casualties. However, Russia made some gains towards Vuhledar, where Ukrainians had successfully repelled numerous assaults since the war's beginning. Over two years, Russian forces had lost substantial armored equipment in that area. Now, Russia is attacking the flanks of Vuhledar using the same human-wave strategy, gradually encircling the city. At the end of September, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from Vuhledar, partly because the high command failed to replace the exhausted defenders in time.

 Meanwhile, Russia struggled on its home turf in the Kursk region. Putin had ordered his forces to push Ukrainian troops out by early October, and a Russian counteroffensive was expected. It began mid-month, with Russian media initially celebrating progress. However, the offensive unfolded exactly as Ukraine had anticipated. Ukrainian reserves attacked the flanks of the advancing Russian units, completely disrupting the counteroffensive. By the end of the month, the situation in the Kursk region had returned to its starting point, forcing Putin to set a new deadline for the expulsion of Ukrainian forces—now February 25.

 If the purpose of the Kursk offensive was to divert Russian troops from the critically threatened Donetsk region, it failed. Russia continues to send reinforcements to Donetsk from across the country, but not from the eastern front in Ukraine. Russian armed forces are even forming motorized rifle units using personnel from various branches—air force members, strategic missile operators, and even crew from the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been rusting in port for over six years. These personnel are being sent to fight—and die—as ordinary infantry.

 

"They Killed His Entire Family"

 Airstrikes from both sides have continued with little change. Ukraine targets military installations on Russian territory, while Russia retaliates by striking civilian targets deep inside Ukraine. One example occurred on September 1, when Russia launched a major missile strike on Kharkiv during rush hour. The attack hit shops, a post office, and a metro entrance, injuring 41 people. That same day, reports emerged that Russian Iskander missiles targeted grain trucks in the Sumy region, killing one driver. Russia claimed it had hit a military convoy.

 On September 4, Russia delivered a harsh message to those claiming that the conflict was limited to eastern Ukraine. Thirteen missiles and dozens of drones targeted Lviv in western Ukraine, killing seven people. Russia asserted that the attack struck military production and repair facilities. However, the missiles hit approximately 50 residential buildings in the city’s historic center.

 The Bazylevych family’s tragedy stands out. They had prepared for emergencies, keeping evacuation bags by the door. When the air raid siren sounded early in the morning, the mother, Yevheniya, and her daughters, Daria, Yaryna, and six-year-old Emilia, rushed toward the shelter. However, a Kinzhal missile struck their building before they could reach safety. All four perished on the staircase. The father, Yaroslav, who had stayed behind in the apartment, was the sole survivor. Three other victims, including two children, also died in the same building.

 Ukraine faced another massive assault on September 20 and 21. Residential buildings in Kharkiv were heavily shelled, a nursing home in Sumy was hit, and in Kryvyi Rih, Russian missiles killed a 12-year-old boy and two elderly women, aged 75 and 79.

 On September 27, Sumy became the target of a brutal double strike, a tactic Russia increasingly uses to kill first responders. A missile hit a hospital, and when firefighters arrived to clear debris and search for survivors, a second missile struck the same location minutes later. The attack killed 10 people, injured 22, and forced the evacuation of 113 patients from the hospital.

 That same day, Russian propaganda was in full force, claiming that a Kinzhal missile had hit a Ukrainian airbase, destroying four F-16 jets along with American instructors. As "proof," Russia shared a photo of a wrecked F-16, but the image was of a plane that had crashed in the U.S. during a 2019 training exercise, with Ukrainian insignia digitally added.

 On the Ukrainian side, both the military and state propaganda faltered after a Russian attack on Poltava on September 3. The military failed by allowing a large number of personnel to gather within range of Russian missiles, and propaganda efforts stumbled when officials initially tried to downplay the attack's impact. Russia launched two Iskander missiles at a military training institute, also hitting a nearby hospital and other buildings. The warning time between the alert and the missile strike was too short for people to reach shelters. The result was a massacre: at least 59 dead and 329 injured.

 Trucks loaded with grain hit by Russian missiles in the Sumy region.

A “military” target, according to the Russian armed forces. Three Red Cross workers were killed in this attack on September 12.

Only the father from the Bazylevich family survived. His wife and three daughters were killed in a Russian missile strike targeting “military” objectives in the city of Lviv.

A military educational institute hit by Iskander missiles on September 3 in Poltava.


Only Belarus Shoots Down Drones

 Russians rarely use missiles, but almost every night they send dozens of Shahed drones into Ukraine. Since the beginning of the year, they have used more than 6,000. Although Ukrainians manage to shoot down most of them, it exhausts their defenses. Recently, however, the number of drones neutralized by electronic warfare has increased. These drones either crash or deviate from their course due to jamming.

 As a result, the number of Russian drones ending up in other countries—mainly Romania and Poland—has also grown. One even flew as far as Latvia on Sunday, September 8. However, NATO countries have not engaged them. For example, Romania sent two fighter jets to escort two Shahed drones, one of which crashed in Romania while the other returned to Ukrainian territory and hit a port on the Danube. Ironically, the only one intercepting Russian drones on its territory is Belarus, Russia’s ally. It scrambled fighter jets to shoot down several lost drones.

 Even the old Soviet ZSU-23-4 Shilka proves effective in countering Shahed drones.

Black Shahed drone shot down.

Ukrainian air defense with a captured trophy.


Ammunition Depots Under Fire

 It seems Ukraine targets specific types of facilities during its attacks on Russia. Previously, it was fuel depots and refineries, followed by a wave of attacks on air bases. During this period, Ukrainian drones concentrated on Russian ammunition depots.

 The first one caught fire on Friday, September 7, in the village of Soldatskoye in the Voronezh region and continued exploding the next day. It reportedly housed North Korean ballistic missiles. Another ammunition depot in occupied Mariupol was hit on Friday, September 13, containing missiles for air defense systems.

 The largest strike occurred on Wednesday, September 18, in the town of Toropets near Tver. Although Russians claimed that only debris from intercepted drones caused minor damage, videos from locals showed a massive explosion. It triggered a 2.8 magnitude earthquake. The depot, recently constructed and supposedly resistant to such attacks, was overfilled with ammunition, possibly from North Korea. The explosions followed one after another. It is estimated that the depot held up to 30,000 tons of ammunition, with 90% of its structures destroyed, according to satellite images.

 A similar scenario unfolded during Friday, September 20, and Saturday, September 21. Ukrainian drones (or their debris, according to Russian sources) hit two more ammunition depots: one in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar, and another near Tver, in the village of Oktyabrsky. Both depots were leveled, and at Oktyabrsky, trains carrying ammunition parked at a nearby station were also struck.

 This is how the “debris of Ukrainian drones” explodes after falling on Russian ammunition depots. Videos recorded by locals contradict Russian authorities' claims.

A satellite image from Maxar shows details of the ammunition depot in Toropets before and after the Ukrainian drone strike.

Maxar also captured destroyed trains carrying ammunition near the depot in Oktyabrsky. This is one of them.


Crater from a Missile

 At the same time, an RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile exploded without Ukrainian involvement. Satellite images revealed that on Friday, September 20, or Saturday, September 21, it failed during a test at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The failure—however catastrophic for Russia—was a relief for the rest of the world. The missile never left its silo, leaving behind a massive crater over 60 meters (196 feet) in diameter.

 The explosion might have occurred upon engine ignition or as the missile started to lift off and then fell back. Another possibility is that the test was aborted, causing the missile to explode during fuel unloading.

 The RS-28 is one of the "wonder weapons" Putin announced in 2018. Its first and only successful test took place in April 2022. Afterwards, a contract for production was signed, and the missile received operational status in September 2023, even though all subsequent tests—including the most recent one—failed.

 A silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome before and after the RS-28 Sarmat missile test. A crater, over 60 meters (196 feet) in diameter, was captured by Maxar's satellite.


Zero Ukrainian Losses

 During this period, the Ukrainian Air Force reported no confirmed losses of aircraft, neither in the air nor on the ground during Russian attacks on the air bases. Only photos that surfaced were those of an older incident from April 30, when a Ukrainian MiG-29MU1 made an emergency landing near the village of Maryina Roshcha in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

 The aircraft, identified as "White 22" and belonging to the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, was flown by a Lieutenant Colonel whose name was not disclosed. The plane landed in a field about 200 meters (656 feet) from a road, leaving a 500-meter (1,640-foot) braking trail. The pilot was unharmed, and the aircraft suffered only minor damage. Investigators found an auxiliary fuel tank detached from the fuselage and split into two pieces, approximately 320 meters (1,050 feet) from the plane. Photos were released on Sunday, September 8.

 A Ukrainian MiG-29MU1, "White 22," that landed in a field back in April. These photos were only released recently.


Saboteurs in Action

 The only confirmed Russian aircraft loss during this period occurred on Tuesday, September 10. Ukrainian special forces carried out a daring raid on drilling platforms in the Black Sea, used by Russia as radar stations. The mission was risky, as the Ukrainian troops reached the platforms in boats without air support.

 Russian patrol planes engaged the boats, and Russia claimed to have destroyed several. However, what can be confirmed is that a Russian Su-30SM fighter crashed into the sea after being hit by a man-portable missile.

 Russia dispatched two rescue helicopters to the crash site but found only a few wreckage pieces on the surface. The crew—Captain Yegor Stepanishin and Captain D. Fomin—did not survive. The incident took place about 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of the Ukrainian-controlled Kherson region.

 Other Russian losses involved helicopters. Two helicopters were damaged, and two were destroyed by saboteurs. One Mi-8AMTSh was hit by shrapnel from anti-aircraft missiles but managed to return to base.

 In a separate incident on September 24, a Mi-8MTV-5 helicopter on an advanced base in Russian-controlled territory was struck by cluster munitions, suffering shrapnel damage.

 Saboteurs destroyed other helicopters. On September 11, a civilian Mi-8T helicopter, operated by UTair, was burned to the ground at the Nojabrsk airport in western Siberia. Two local teenage boys set it on fire, reportedly recruited via Telegram and promised five million rubles.

 Another Mi-8AMTSh helicopter, identified as "Yellow 05," was destroyed on September 21 at the Omsk-Severny airbase. The fire completely ruined the cockpit, rendering the aircraft irreparable. Russian authorities captured the saboteurs, two 16-year-old boys allegedly recruited through social networks.

Ukrainian special forces in action at drilling platforms in the Black Sea. A Russian Su-30SM was shot down during this operation.

A Russian Mi-8AMTSh helicopter damaged by shrapnel from an air-defense missile.

A Russian Mi-8MTV-5 helicopter damaged by a cluster ammunition while on the ground.


A Mi-8T with the registration RA-24519 burned completely at the Nojabrsk airport.

The cockpit of a Mi-8AMTSh, with the fuselage number “Yellow 05,” was entirely destroyed at the Omsk-Severny airbase.

Training of the new Ukrainian paratroopers.

Evacuation of the wounded.

A guard keeping watch over a Ukrainian Mi-17 helicopter.

A Ukrainian Mi-24P helicopter adorned with folkloric motifs.

11/2024
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11/1/2024

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