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Air War in Ukraine

Residential building in Avdiivka destroyed by a Russian rocket.


Summary of the Second Year of Conflict


Text: Miro Barič


Two years have passed since the senseless war began, bringing nothing but devastation, bloodshed, and ruin to all involved. Therefore, in today's continuation, we will look not only at the traditional monthly period (this time from February 1st to February 29th) but also at the summary of what happened in Ukraine in the second year of the conflict. But first, allow me a personal address.


During these two years, I've learned a lot about various people around me, but also about myself. For example, that I am a war instigator, relishing in senseless killing, and am an activist paid by the West to spread Western propaganda.

Well, perhaps I am a war instigator in the sense that from the beginning of the war, I have insisted that the aggressor cease attacking, which would lead to immediate peace. Unlike calls for the capitulation of defenders, which would only lead to the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians themselves.

There's no point in reacting to various "whataboutisms". However, I insist that lies are not opinions, and I certainly won't respect them. I also reject claims that relativize the truth by saying that none of us were there, so we don't know how it was. I wasn't in Auschwitz either, yet I know who was the embodiment of evil there and who was the victim – the same applies to Bucha or Mariupol.

And if you don't like my alleged "Western propaganda," there's a simpler solution – follow the spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense, Konashenkov. In the summer of 2022, he announced the destruction of 40 HIMARS - out of less than 20 that were delivered at that time. By the way, in the last observed period, the first evidence appeared that the Russians at least damaged two HIMARS with a missile. At the beginning of March, they managed to demonstrably destroy the very first HIMARS - but that will be in the next installment of the article. It won't be missing from it because my alleged "Western propaganda" doesn't conceal it...

 On February 10, Antonov An-124-100M named "Be brave like Okhtyrka" landed at Harrisburg International Airport in Pennsylvania. The aircraft with registration UR-82008 belongs to Antonov Airlines. It brought two M142 HIMARS rocket launchers for repair to the USA. One of them likely had its right front wheel torn off by a mine explosion and damaged the lower part of the cabin. The other one has at least 16 shrapnel impacts in the cabin, both front windows cracked, and both front tires damaged. These are the first two demonstrably damaged HIMARS out of 39 delivered.



March 2023

During this period, Poland and Slovakia delivered MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Warsaw provided at least four aircraft in March, with another 10 scheduled to be delivered the following month. Slovakia provided 13 units, three of which were without engines and suitable only as a source of spare parts. Only four out of the remaining ten aircraft flew to Ukraine under their own power (numbers 2123, 6124, and 6627 in gray-green camouflage and 0921 in digital camouflage). The flight from Sliač took place on March 23rd. The remaining aircraft were transported by ground.

A serious incident between Russian and Western armed forces occurred on March 14th. Two Russian Su-27 fighters attacked an American MQ-9 Reaper drone in international airspace over the Black Sea and caused it to crash by hitting its propeller.

 Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jets showcasing blue-yellow paint on their underside.


April 2023

Kyiv became the target of rocket shelling again on April 28th after 51 days of peace. This happened on the day when the Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and the Czech President Petr Pavel were visiting the Ukrainian capital. Both had to take cover in an air raid shelter.

In addition to Ukraine, Russia also bombed its own territory when on April 20th, a Su-34 mistakenly dropped bombs on the city of Belgorod.

Ukrainian drones attacked the fuel depot of the Black Sea Fleet in the city of Sevastopol on April 29th, destroying approximately half of the tanks.

 Two-seater MiG-29UB from the Ukrainian 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade taking off from a highway.


May 2023

At the end of the previous month, two Patriot system batteries arrived in Ukraine and were involved in the defense of the capital from the beginning of May. The first Russian "undestructible" missile Ch-47M2 Kinzhal was shot down on May 4th in the early morning over Kyiv. The Russians tried to overwhelm the Patriot with a large number of missiles to destroy it. In such a mass attack on May 16th, Ukrainians shot down another six Kinzhals.

Ukrainians also used the Patriot defensively, and on May 13th, they set a trap for a Russian group flying to bomb the Ukrainian Chernihiv region with gliding bombs. However, the whole group was shot down on their side of the border, in the Russian Bryansk region. It included one Su-34, one Su-35, and at least two Mi-8 helicopters modified for electronic warfare. Such losses were admitted by the Russians themselves. According to the Ukrainians, another Mi-8 helicopter was shot down - a total of five aircraft at once.

In May, there was also the first use of British-French Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG cruise missiles. Ukrainians launch them from modified Su-24 aircraft. They also used ADM-160 MALD decoys alongside them.

At the end of May, the Russians managed to capture the ruins of the destroyed city of Bakhmut, which had been fought over for almost 10 months. However, Ukrainians began counterattacks around the city, and fighting for Klyshchivka, located south of Bakhmut, continues to this day.

Ukrainian Mi-24P helicopters during a combat mission.

Loading of the unguided rockets into Mi-24P helicopters.


June 2023

In the early days of June, the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in the south of the country in the Zaporizhia region. However, it progressed slowly from the start against well-fortified Russian positions with numerous minefields. Two days after its start, on June 6th, fearing a possible crossing of the Dnieper River, the Russians blew up the Kachovska Dam north of the city of Kherson. This caused a huge humanitarian and ecological disaster.

At the end of the month, mercenaries from the Wagner group who led the main charge (and also the losses) in the battle for Bakhmut, rebelled. Their leader, Prigozhin, seized Rostov-on-Don on June 23rd. He hoped to capture Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, whom he had long publicly criticized. However, they managed to escape from Rostov just before. On the next day, Wagner's columns headed towards Moscow. They occupied one city after another and shot down six Russian helicopters and one Il-22M aircraft - a flying command post. However, Prigozhin halted his mercenaries 200 km from Moscow. Shortly afterward, they also withdrew from Rostov in exchange for an alleged promise of impunity. As a result, the coup failed, and Wagner's forces as a significant force came to an end.

 Storm Shadow missile on the pylon of a Ukrainian Su-24.

Former Czech Kub system in Ukraine.


July 2023

The Kerch Strait Bridge leading to the occupied Crimea became the target of another naval drone attack on July 17th. At least one road section was damaged. At the same time, the grain agreement, which allowed the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the world, expired. Russia began attacking grain depots and port infrastructure not only on the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea but also on the Danube River near the borders with Romania. During his month, Ukraine began receiving cluster munitions from the USA for its artillery.

 Mobile machine gun in action against drones.

Night time interception of the drones.


August 2023

Denmark, the Netherlands, and subsequently Norway announced this month that they would supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. However, after the necessary training of pilots and ground personnel, Ukrainians will start receiving them only in 2024. Altogether, it could be about 70 aircraft in the F-16AM Block 20 MLU version.

In August, the Crimean Peninsula became the target of serious Storm Shadow missile attacks. Several bridges were hit, and at least two S-400 system batteries were destroyed. Ukrainian drones also attacked airports on Russian territory. At Soltsy-2 base, a Tu-22M3 bomber caught fire, and at the Pskov airport, two Il-76 transport aircraft were destroyed, and two more were damaged.

Exactly two months after the attempted coup by Wagner mercenaries, revenge came. During a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg, a civilian Embraer EMB-135BJ Legacy 600 was shot down. Prigozhin and other Wagner leaders died aboard. Two surface-to-air missiles likely hit the plane, although the official Russian version is that the passengers were playing with a grenade during the flight, which exploded.

 Shot down Iranian-made Shahed drone sporting black paint for night missions.

This mobile machine gun shows 15 Shahed drones and one Lance drone kill marks. It is not known whether these are the achievements of one gun or the entire unit.


September 2023

Ukraine scored a strategic victory over Russia in the Black Sea. It managed to lift the Russian blockade and resume grain exports independently. It continues to do so today and in greater volume than before the grain agreement allowed. On September 13th, the Minsk landing ship and the Rostov-on-Don submarine were destroyed by Storm Shadow missiles in the dry dock at the port of Sevastopol. Subsequently, on September 22nd, the Sevastopol headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was also destroyed in the same way. It preferred to move its ships further east.

Russia began using Lancet drones with longer range, hitting several Ukrainian aircraft at airports near the cities of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv. The results of the attacks were monitored by Russian reconnaissance drones. Their operations dozens of kilometers behind the front line continue to cause problems for Ukrainians to this day.

 The erodynamic shields‘ test during the pre-flight preparation of a Russian Su-25.


October 2023

The month began with another terrible Russian war crime. During a mourning gathering held at the funeral of a soldier in the village of Hroza in the Kharkiv region, an Iskander missile was launched. It killed 59 people - 36 women, 22 men, and one child. A UN investigation confirmed that all victims were civilians, and Russia bears responsibility for their deaths.

Ukraine received ATACMS missiles with a longer range, and on October 17th, they were used against Russian helicopter airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk. Russian armed forces lost 46 helicopters.

On the ground, a stalemate occurred. The Ukrainian advance to the south halted in the Robotyne and Verbove areas after reaching the third - main Russian defense line. Conversely, the Russians launched their own massive attack on Avdiivka near Donetsk.

 A Russian rescue unit, which on February 17, picked up the downed pilot of a Su-35 fighter jet with a Mi-24 helicopter.

Captain Fyodor Graboveckiy, who was less fortunate on February 19 and died in the Azov Sea after his Su-35 was shot down.


November 2023

In the port of Kerch on the occupied Crimea, the Russian corvette Askold was destroyed by Storm Shadow missiles on November 4th. In November, Russians increased the intensity of attacks with Iranian Shahed drones. They helped them map Ukrainian air defense positions. Allies were strengthening it before winter. Germany supplied the IRIS-T system and another Patriot, while Norway provided additional NASAMS systems. Results from the FrankenSAM program, which combines elements of various systems - such as American missiles with Soviet launchers or Soviet radars with Western launchers, began arriving from the USA.

 An image of the Russian A-50.

Tail section of an A-50 that was shot down on February 23.

Major Valeriy Borovikov commanded the shot-down A-50.


December 2023

The Patriot system delivered from Germany became very active. On December 5th, a Russian Su-24M was shot down near the Snake Island while attempting to attack Odesa. Both crew members died. The identity of one of them was confirmed only now, he was Captain Yevgeny Baterin. Subsequently, on December 17th, a Russian Su-25 was shot down, and on December 22nd, three Su-34s were shot down at once. On Christmas Eve, December 24th, Ukrainians announced another Su-34 and one Su-30 shot down.

The destruction of the Black Sea Fleet continued as Storm Shadow missiles were launched on December 26th at the Novocherkassk landing ship in the port of Feodosia. The explosion of carried ammunition and subsequent fire contributed to its sinking.

At the end of December, Russia launched the largest rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the war. 18 strategic bombers participated in the raids on December 29th. In total, Russians launched 122 missiles and cruise missiles and 36 drones. The attack claimed 58 human lives and injured more than 160 people.

 On February 11, in the Voronezh region, the transportation of a crashed Su-34 was filmed. The circumstances of the incident are unknown.


January 2024

Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities continued. For example, on January 2nd, a total of 134 missiles and drones were launched. This attack also involved 16 Tu-95MS bombers. However, Russians did not only bomb Ukrainian targets. Their own munitions increasingly fell accidentally on their own cities and towns.

Russians suffered a significant loss in the air on January 14th when an early warning and control aircraft, Beriev A-50, was destroyed. It crashed into the Sea of Azov. Along with it, the airborne command and communication post Il-22M was also hit. Despite being peppered with shrapnel and having casualties on board, it managed to make an emergency landing. However, the aircraft is now considered a write-off. Additionally, on January 24th, a transport Il-76M crashed in the Belgorod region after being hit by an anti-aircraft missile. It is still unclear what or who it was carrying.

 Ukrainian Su-25M1K with tail number "blue 21".

On February 7th, Major Vladyslav Rykov from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade perished in a shot down Ukrainian Su-25.


February 2024

In the last month covered, two significant events occurred. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed popular General Valeriy Zaluzhny from the position of the highest commander of the Ukrainian armed forces on Thursday, February 8th. He was replaced by the former commander of ground forces, General Oleksandr Syrsky. Syrsky lead a successful defense of Kyiv in the spring of 2022 and a rapid counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022. However, he also led the battles around Bakhmut, where many soldiers criticized him for mistakes in rotation at the beginning of 2023. Zaluzhny is to become the new Ukrainian ambassador to Great Britain at his own request.

The second significant event was the Ukrainian retreat from Avdiivka, which was completed on Saturday, February 17th. It is the first such success of the Russian army since May 2023 when Bachmut fell. Russia paid for it with tens of thousands of dead and wounded soldiers and hundreds of destroyed pieces of equipment. The fall of Avdiivka was mainly contributed to by two factors - the limitation of ammunition supplies from the West and Russian aerial bombing.

The decision to withdraw from Avdiivka was made earlier and began to be implemented when Valeriy Zaluzhny was the commander of the Ukrainian army. Ukrainians moved the 3rd assault brigade to Avdiivka under the pretext of rotation and strengthening the defense. However, its real task was to cover the retreat of other units. When the Russians realized what was happening, they threw all their forces into the attack. The result was chaos over which neither side had any control. Small units mixed in the ruins of the city and often had to fight surrounded. Several wounded Ukrainians had to be left behind during the retreat because they couldn't move and couldn't be carried away. Some fell into captivity, but others were massacred by the Russians.

While last summer, Ukrainian artillery managed to overcome the Russian in some areas, in Avdiivka in the last period, it had to remain silent due to a lack of ammunition. Its deliveries from the EU are delayed, and those from the USA have completely stopped due to domestic disputes in Congress.

Russian mass attacks on Avdiivka, which began in October 2023, seriously disrupted artillery even before Russian soldiers approached within the range of small arms. Therefore, especially during the initial attacks, Russians suffered significant losses. However, nothing like this happened in the last weeks before the fall of Avdiivka. Russian formations could prepare for the attack undisturbed, and Ukrainian infantry in defense could rely only on their own weapons and the support of Bradley armored vehicles, which emerged from shelters to help them.

The second significant factor was Russian aerial bombing. Shortly before the Ukrainian retreat, around 50 glide bombs fell on Avdiivka daily. Their accuracy was not high, but with a weight of 500 kg, they caused damage wherever they fell. In Avdiivka, they mainly destroyed tall apartment buildings used by Ukrainians for battlefield observation and defense.

After the Ukrainian retreat, this bombing began on the new defensive line and also near Bachmut, where the Russians renewed their efforts to advance westward. The number of dropped bombs began to reach up to 100 daily, and new glide bombs with a weight of up to 1500 kg appeared.

 On February 17, near Robotyne, a Ukrainian Mi-17V-5 helicopter was shot down and two crew members were killed.


Russian Bombing and Losses

The insufficient deliveries of weapons and ammunition also relate to Russia's ability to bomb Avdiivka undisturbed for a long time. Ukrainians do not have enough air defense systems to effectively defend the entire front line. Batteries of air defense systems were moved to Avdiivka only in the second half of the month to cover the end of the retreat. Among them, the third battery of the Patriot system stood out, which was supplied from Germany at the end of last year. Ukraine previously had two batteries, one deployed for the defense of Kyiv and the other for the defense of Odessa. The advantage of the third German battery is that its individual components are mounted on trucks. American Patriot systems are mounted on trailers, and even the highly trained crew takes 30-40 minutes to prepare them for relocation. The German battery can be moved almost immediately. According to Austrian military expert Tom Cooper, Ukrainians may have further divided this battery into smaller components by adding other guidance radars to several launchers. Based on the FrankenSAM program, it may also include radars from originally Soviet systems, such as the S-300. This division of the battery into smaller elements allows coverage of a larger section of the front.

Ukrainians already announced the downing of two Su-34s and one Su-35 on Saturday, February 17th. Claims continued almost on a daily basis - on February 18th, another Su-34 was claimed, on February 19th, one Su-34 and one Su-35, on February 21st, another Su-34, on February 27th, two Su-34s, and during February 29th, three Su-34s were claimed consecutively. In total, twelve aircraft were claimed to be shot down, but verifying their downing poses a challenge. Russian social media confirmed the loss of only two Su-35s. Ukraine provided blurry videos as evidence of the downing of two Su-34s. However, the fate of the remaining eight claimed Sukhoi aircraft remains uncertain. A definitive answer will have to wait, similar to previous installments of this series. In practically every part, some photographic confirmation of loss from previous months is mentioned - on both sides. In the currently monitored period, damaged Su-34s after emergency landings appeared in footage, indicating events that surely occurred sometime in the past, although it is unknown which event they are linked to. However, some insight into Russian losses may be gleaned from satellite image analysis of Russian airfields. It suggests that during the period when Ukrainians claimed the aforementioned shootdowns, six Su-34s did not return to their bases. Let's take a closer look at the confirmed losses. On Saturday, February 17th, a Su-35 was shot down over eastern Ukraine. The pilot ejected, and he was rescued by a Mi-24 helicopter crew on a combat search and rescue mission (CSAR). After successfully rescuing the Su-35 pilot, the helicopter unit took a group photo, essentially confirming the downing of the Russian fighter jet. The second Su-35 was shot down two days later, on Monday, February 19th. This time, it crashed into the Sea of Azov near the village of Rybacke, south of Mariupol. It was piloted by Captain Fedor Graboveckyi. Although he managed to successfully eject from the falling aircraft, he died in the cold water before rescue helicopters could reach him.

 One of the confirmed casualties of the shot down Mi-17V-5 is Vadim Pokatayev.

The Mi-8AMTŠ helicopter with registration RF-04428 and tail number "red 62", in which Russian pilot Captain Maxim Kuzminov defected to the Ukrainian side on August 9, 2023.

Maxim Kuzminov was shot dead in Spain in February.

Lieutenant Nikita Kiryanov, who died during Kuzminov's defection.

Captain Chushbacht Tursunov, who died during Kuzminov's defection.


Another A-50

 During this reporting period, in addition to fighters and fighter-bombers, the Ukrainian air defense was also successful in shooting down another airborne early warning and control aircraft, a Beriev A-50. Its demise on Friday, February 23, was captured by several videos. In one of them, the aircraft is seen descending and releasing decoy targets, with two missiles aiming at it. One missile managed to divert away and exploded far behind the aircraft. However, the second missile hit it, causing the aircraft to fall in flames. Subsequent videos showed a strong fire after the crash and the detached tail of the aircraft on the ground, confirming its identity immediately.

 The A-50 crashed near the village of Trudovaya Armenia on the Russian side of the Sea of Azov, more than 200 km from the nearest Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian secret service stated that it was shot down with the help of a modified S-200 missile. After the first A-50 was shot down in January, these Russian aircraft began to move further away from the front line. Ukrainians therefore sought ways to successfully target them. Although old S-200 missiles had been retired, some versions of this missile have a range of up to 300 km.

 The downed A-50 had the designation RF-50610 and the fuselage number "red 42". It belonged to the 610th Center for Combat Training and Retraining of Air Personnel. There were at least 10 crew members on board, but none of them survived. Among them were Major Valeriy Borovikov, Major Alexander Ruluk, Captain Alexander Provalov, Lieutenant Valeriy Telmanov, and Sergeant Dmitry Khrulev. For Russia, this is a significant loss because it is not easy to manufacture such an aircraft, and its crew consisted of specialists with years of training that cannot be replaced.

 

Ukrainian Losses

 Moving the air defense closer to the front line carries increased risks, and Ukrainians paid dearly for it. During the period under review, they lost an S-300 battery, and on February 26, the first NASAMS launch device was destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region.

 During the period under review, Ukraine demonstrably lost two aircraft. Firstly, on Wednesday, February 7, a Su-25 from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade was destroyed during a combat flight. Its pilot, Major Vladyslav Rykov, was killed. He was most likely shot down by an R-37 missile fired from a Russian Su-35 fighter.

 On Tuesday, February 13, a Mi-17V-5 helicopter of the Ukrainian Army Aviation was shot down in the Robotyne area of the Zaporizhzhia region. Two crew members were killed (one of them was named Vadim Pokatajev), and a third crew member was critically injured.

 Additionally, the death of a Russian pilot, Captain Maxim Kuzminov, who defected to the Ukrainian side, may be mentioned. On August 9, he defected to the Ukrainian side with a Mi-8AMTŠ helicopter marked RF-04428 and fuselage number "red 62". Two other crew members had no idea about his intention to defect and were shot after landing. Kuzminov was labeled a traitor in Russia, and intelligence services sentenced him to death. In Ukraine, he received half a million dollars and three options to choose from: to fight for Ukraine, to stay in Ukraine as a civilian, or to live abroad. Kuzminov chose the last option and settled in Spain. However, he violated the rules of secrecy when he contacted his girlfriend. This likely led to his location being traced, and he was shot. By the way, during the period under review, the identities of the remaining two crew members who died during his defection were also revealed. They were Captain Chushbacht Tursunov and Lieutenant Nikita Kiryanov. Kuzminov's killing indicates that Ukrainian efforts to persuade other Russian pilots to defect are likely to be ineffective.

 

Ships at the Bottom

 During the period under review, the destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continued using naval drones. On Thursday, February 1, a Tarantul-class missile corvette, Ivanovec, was sent to the bottom, The ship was attacked by a pack of Magura V5 drones, which harassed her like voracious predators. Gradually, two drones hit its rear section, likely disabling its propulsion. Subsequently, one drone caused a large hole on the port side, into which the fourth drone then flew and exploded inside the ship. The video also shows an explosion on the starboard side. Thus, the corvette was hit by at least five drones. At the end of the video, published by the Ukrainian military intelligence GUR, only the silhouette of the sinking ship protruding vertically above the water is visible.

 Subsequently, on Wednesday, February 14, the same way, the landing ship Cézar Kunikov was destroyed off the coast of Crimea. It was carrying cargo from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol when it was tracked down by a swarm of Magura V5 drones. After several explosions, the ship overturned and sank. The ship belonged to the Ropucha class and sank exactly 81 years after the death of Major Cézar Kunikov, after whom it was named. He had been fatally wounded in the battles for Novorossiysk and died on February 14, 1943.

04/2024
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