The Air War Over Ukraine

llustrative image of an An-124 landing in Leipzig. The photograph is sourced from Wikimedia Commons / MarcelX42.

Drone Attack in a NATO Country

Text: Miro Barič

In this episode of the series, we cover the period from August 1 to August 31, 2026. During this period, there was a serious escalation outside Ukrainian territory, when an attempt was made to attack a Ukrainian An-124 aircraft with an explosive-laden drone at Leipzig Airport in Germany. Berlin accused the Russian intelligence service of being behind the incident. This was the first deliberate drone attack involving explosives on the territory of a NATO member state.

During the night from Tuesday, August 4, to Wednesday, August 5, Leipzig Airport in Germany became the target of a coordinated attack involving several drones. The airport serves as a strategic NATO base for transportation to eastern member states and, since the Russian invasion, also for transporting military aid to Ukraine. That aid was the target, specifically a Ukrainian An-124 transport aircraft. Camera footage showed that on the evening of Tuesday, August 4, a drone approached the aircraft. It was a quadcopter carrying 800 grams of Semtex plastic explosive. The drone struck the wing of the An-124 at a location where the fuel tank is situated, but it did not explode. A subsequent investigation showed that it had a faulty detonator. The drone bounced off the aircraft's wing and fell to the ground. There, it was found lying on the ground by an airport bus driver, who raised the alarm. The airport was closed and flights were diverted.

Another incident then occurred. A cargo Boeing 757 operated by European Air Transport Leipzig, which was just approaching for landing, aborted the maneuver and began climbing when, at an altitude of 400 meters, it collided with another drone. That drone was probably carrying a camera and was intended to record the aftermath of the attack on the An-124. The Boeing 757 subsequently landed in Hanover with a dent in its nose.

Around the time when the first drone struck the wing of the An-124 in Leipzig, there was also an explosion in the abandoned village of Kunsdorf next to the airport. Another drone apparently crashed into the ground there and exploded. A third drone carrying explosives was later found in a field west of the airport. These attack drones were equipped with SIM cards. This allowed them to be controlled from practically anywhere on the planet while also enabling them to bypass the airport's anti-drone protection system, which identified them as an ordinary mobile phone.

German investigators concluded that Russia was behind the attack. According to German media, two Belarusian and Lithuanian citizens were identified as suspects; they also hold Russian passports. However, they could not be detained. U.S. authorities likewise stated that, according to all the findings, the Russian intelligence service was behind the attempted attack. Less than a month later, the German government formally accused Moscow of responsibility for the incident and closed the Russian House in Berlin and the Russian consulate in Bonn.

This represents a serious escalation. Although there have been numerous arson attacks in Europe in recent years for which Russia has been blamed, it had previously been more restrained when it came to drone incidents. Drones had been used only to test defensive responses or to disrupt operations at airports and other important facilities. In Leipzig, however, drones carrying explosives were used for the first time on the territory of a NATO member state.

Since we mentioned arson attacks, there was also an attempted attack in Slovakia during the period under review. On Tuesday, August 25, police foiled it and detained three suspects. A fourth was detained later. They were reportedly two Latvian citizens and two Ukrainian citizens, who had been hired by someone to set fire to a factory in Haniska near Prešov, where the Ukrainian company Skyeton manufactures drones. One of the suspects was arrested in Germany. The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung later reported that both the incident in Leipzig and the one near Prešov were allegedly the work of a network belonging to Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU, which recruits foreigners through intermediaries in Europe to carry out such attacks. According to sources in German security services cited by the newspaper, one of the network's nodes is located in Slovakia. Thus, in addition to the attempted attack on the factory near Prešov itself, organizational and logistical support for other operations in other countries is also allegedly being coordinated from Slovakia. For example, the arson attack in Munich, Germany, after which two Bulgarian citizens were arrested, was reportedly also directed from Slovakia.

The drone carrying explosives in Leipzig was neutralized by a police robot.

Slovak Police released footage of the arrested suspects and seized evidence in the case of an attempted arson attack on a drone manufacturer.

Kyiv and Odesa Under Fire

Unfortunately, Russian attacks also intensified in Ukraine, where they are claiming an increasingly high number of civilian victims. The Kyiv and Odesa regions in particular were the targets of practically daily attacks. In the latter case, attacks on ships and port infrastructure are intended to restrict Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea—and unfortunately, they are succeeding. While 169 commercial vessels arrived in Odesa in July, only seven vessels ventured to do so during the first third of August...

A major attack on Kyiv came on the very first day of the period under review, Saturday, August 1, when the Lithuanian embassy was also hit. At least nine people were killed in the Ukrainian capital. Among them was 20-year-old medical volunteer Vitalina Yarovenko. She had arrived to help the wounded and became a victim of a Russian double strike on the same location. This appalling tactic is specifically intended to kill rescuers and firefighters responding after the first attack.

Medical volunteer Vitalina Yarovenko was killed in a Russian double strike on Kyiv.

The attacks, of course, were not limited to the two regions mentioned above. On Tuesday, August 4, the Russians once again “boasted” on social media about a video from the so-called human safari in Kherson. This time, an ordinary vegetable seller became the target of an FPV drone. Miraculously, he escaped with only minor injuries, even though the drone exploded right next to him.

Another major attack on Kyiv came during the night of August 4–5. At least 17 people were killed. The raid on Kvitneva railway station in the Kyiv region was particularly tragic. The platform where passengers were waiting for a train was hit. Eight of them were killed.

On Tuesday, August 11, in addition to Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia was also targeted. Missiles struck the Zaporizhstal steelworks. Seven employees did not manage to reach the shelter in time... The plant had to halt production, as did Ukraine's largest steel producer, ArcelorMittal, in the city of Kryvyi Rih, which was hit on Sunday, August 16.

On Thursday, August 20, Kyiv was again the target of a major attack, which claimed 15 lives. A total of 23 civilians were killed across Ukraine that day. On Saturday, August 22, the Russians bombed a shopping center in Kryvyi Rih. Sixteen people were killed and another 130 were injured, including 23 children. The Russians again used the tactic of a double strike. The second strike came half an hour later, when firefighters and rescuers were already working at the site.

Firefighters and rescuers responding after the first attack are the targets of Russian double strikes.

Thirty-eight people were killed in the explosion of an ammunition depot in the village of Myla near Kyiv. A total of 300 buildings were destroyed or damaged.

A shopping center in the city of Kryvyi Rih, where 16 people were killed in a Russian airstrike.

Ukraine's Problems

A problem for Ukraine's air defense is that its supplies of missiles for Patriot systems are running low; these are the only systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. While Ukraine received 675 Patriot missiles in 2023, that number had fallen to 364 in 2025, and this year it amounts to 264 missiles. As a result, Ukrainian air defenses often have nothing with which to engage incoming targets. This is also why Ukraine stopped publishing figures for the number of Russian ballistic missiles launched and intercepted during the period under review.

Another problem is that the proportion of newer versions of Shahed/Geran drones with jet propulsion and higher performance among the attacking Russian drones is increasing. To shoot them down, Ukraine has to use fighter aircraft with air-to-air missiles to a greater extent, and those stocks are also running low.

The Russians are aware of this, and at the end of the period under review they launched a new type of attack intended to exhaust Ukrainian defenses and break the civilian population. Instead of carrying out large, concentrated attacks on Kyiv as they had done previously, they began attacking in small waves with short intervals between them. In the Ukrainian capital, air-raid sirens were therefore sounding practically continuously during the final days of the period under review, paralyzing normal life and all business activity.

During this series of attacks, one of the most tragic events in a long time occurred on Saturday, August 29. A Russian drone struck a warehouse in a residential area in the village of Myla in the Bucha district near Kyiv. The warehouse contained a large amount of ammunition, and secondary explosions turned a wide surrounding area into a scorched wasteland. The ammunition explosions damaged or destroyed 300 buildings, including apartment blocks and more than 200 family homes. Thirty-eight people were killed, including residents of a nursing home, which was also destroyed. Another 52 people were injured.

The ammunition warehouse was not protected in any way. This is an outrageous case of negligence, made all the more shocking by the fact that similar incidents had occurred the previous month and nobody had learned from them. Ukrainian authorities launched an investigation and called on private arms companies to immediately inspect their storage facilities and secure them if necessary.

Refineries and Warehouses

During the period under review, Ukraine continued to focus primarily on attacks against Russian refineries and logistics centers. On the average, the refineries were attacked every other day. There is a little point in listing them all here, as most had already been hit repeatedly in previous months. The most distant one was located in Omsk, approximately 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border. These attacks succeeded in taking more than 30 percent of Russia's refining capacity offline, thereby depriving Moscow of $15 billion that it could otherwise have used to finance the war. Another consequence is that, due to fuel shortages, Russia now has to import gasoline, for example from India and Kazakhstan.

After roughly a month of attacks, a summary of the consequences for the Russian company Wildberries also emerged. At least 22 warehouses were hit, 19 of which burned down completely. The value of the destroyed goods is estimated at $5–6 billion. In addition to Wildberries, Ukrainian drones also began attacking the logistics warehouses of Ozon, the second-largest online retailer. In both cases, the attacks are aimed at destroying dual-use goods as well as delivering a significant blow to the Russian economy.

Among the other targets, the fight against Russian logistics should be mentioned, with a record 14,000 trucks and tankers destroyed in a single month. Ukrainian drones are also systematically attacking energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea. The aim is to cut off electricity supplies to stationary radars and other military facilities located there.

An exceptional attack took place in Novorossiysk on Wednesday, August 12, using naval drones, jet-powered aerial drones, and cruise missiles. Port infrastructure, air-defense positions, and at least four warships, including two frigates, were damaged. But the biggest blow for Russia was the shutdown of operations at two grain terminals and the Sheskharis oil terminal, which were also hit. Russian exports through Novorossiysk were therefore suspended indefinitely. The Ukrainians thus did the same thing to Novorossiysk that the Russians did to Odesa. Since both countries are major exporters of grain to the world, there is a risk of rising food prices in countries dependent on imports. Several countries therefore began calling for the restoration of the Black Sea Grain Deal, which the Kremlin has so far rejected.

It should be mentioned that during mass Ukrainian attacks, civilians are sometimes killed in Russia as well. At the seaside resort of Gelendzhik in Krasnodar Krai, on Monday, August 3, a Ukrainian drone fell onto a beach full of people after being hit by Russian air defenses. According to various sources, between three and six people were killed and others were injured. The incident was captured on video, which shows the drone falling on its wing, indicating that it had apparently already been disabled and was no longer under control.

Burning Russian refineries.

Russian logistics warehouses after a “visit” by Ukrainian drones.

Attacks on Russian Airfields

In addition to the targets mentioned above, Ukraine continued its campaign against Russian military airfields. In fact, almost all Russian aviation losses during the period under review occurred during these attacks. There were no losses in the air during combat missions; one occurred in an accident.

During the night of Wednesday, August 5, a Yak-40 aircraft was reportedly hit at the airfield in Belgorod. Ukrainian drones also attacked the Akhtubinsk airbase in Russia's Astrakhan Oblast on Thursday, August 20. Satellite imagery confirmed that a Su-34 fighter-bomber belonging to the 929th State Flight Test Center was damaged. The aircraft had not yet been camouflaged and was still in its basic factory paint.

On Sunday, August 23, Ukraine's 414th Separate Unmanned Systems Brigade carried out a drone attack on the international airport in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai. It hit several targets at once—a Sukhoi fighter aircraft, probably a Su-30SM, a MiG-29K, and a large Orion combat drone.

Ukrainian drones hit another MiG-29 the very next night, into Monday, August 24, this time at the Millerovo airbase in Russia's Rostov Oblast. In this case, however, it was a decommissioned aircraft that had been parked at the base for years. It did not even catch fire after being hit. Instead, a helicopter decoy that was struck during the same attack burned down. The Ukrainians wasted a drone on this primitive dummy...

A much more valuable target was hit by Ukrainian drones on Friday, August 28, at the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. This airfield is home to Russian strategic bombers that regularly launch cruise missiles on Ukrainian cities. One Tu-95MS was heavily damaged there when an explosion caused by a Ukrainian drone tore off part of its wing. However, the bomber had already been decommissioned at the time, or was undergoing repairs—the satellite imagery shows that its engines were missing.

On Sunday, August 30, Ukrainian drones returned to the Millerovo airbase and were more successful this time—they hit an ammunition depot, which burned down. On the same day, the Yeysk airbase in Krasnodar Krai and the Hvardiiske airbase in Crimea also came under attack. At both locations, satellite imagery confirmed several burned areas after the attacks, but it was not possible to determine exactly what had burned there. The Dzhankoi airbase in Crimea was also hit, destroying an air-defense position.

The only accident mentioned during this period occurred on Saturday, August 22, in Krasnodar Krai. Near the village of Kalezh, an Mi-8MTV-1 helicopter with registration number RF-32830, belonging to Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations, had to make an emergency landing. The helicopter was damaged during the hard landing.

The Tu-95MS at the Engels-2 airbase lost a wing after being hit. Note, however, that the aircraft had its engines removed.

A Russian Sukhoi fighter aircraft hit in Anapa.

In Millerovo, a Russian MiG-29 became the target of Ukrainian drones.

A Russian Su-34 at the Akhtubinsk airbase was damaged. It still sports its factory primer paing.

An Mi-8MTV-1 helicopter belonging to Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations that crashed in Krasnodar Krai.

Ukrainian Losses and Gains

On the Ukrainian side, there was one loss during the period under review. It was also caused by an accident, although it occurred during a combat mission. On Monday, August 10, a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter was countering a Russian attack on the Odesa region. However, one of the missiles exploded directly beneath the fighter's wing at the moment it was launched. The aircraft caught fire, the pilot lost control of it, and had to eject. The causes of the missile malfunction are being investigated.

Finally, a note on developments on the ground battlefield. It is now possible to say that the Russian summer offensive in Donetsk Oblast failed. Its objective was to outflank the fortified belt around the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from both sides. The southern arm of the pincer was supposed to advance from the city of Dobropillia, but it failed to move. Although the situation there continues to deteriorate for the defenders, the city has held out for many months.

Russian efforts on the northern arm of the pincer near the city of Lyman fared even worse. Although Ukraine maintained a strict information blackout, reports began emerging during the period under review that the Ukrainians had not only stopped the Russian offensive attempt there, but had crushed the Russian forces and begun pushing them back. After Russian military channels also acknowledged the loss of territory near Lyman, the Ukrainians confirmed that Operation Vivaldi was underway there, named after the four seasons. This operation also has four phases, and the liberation of villages north of Lyman was only the first of them. Ground drones also played a major role in this operation. We will certainly learn more in the next period.

A Ukrainian MiG-29 crashed in the Odesa region after its own missile exploded beneath the wing.