Air War over Ukraine

Cities Are Freezing

Text: Miro Barič

In this installment of the series, we cover the period from January 1, 2026 to January 31, 2026. During this month, Russia focused on attacks against energy infrastructure — power plants, heating plants, substations. The goal is to terrorize the civilian population with freezing temperatures. Apart from intensive shelling, not much happened in the air. There were several drone attacks on Ukrainian airfields, but their results were mixed.

At the turn of the year, two events related to the drone attacks took place. First, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov accused Ukraine of attacking the residence of Russian President Putin near Lake Valdai in the Novgorod region. According to Lavrov, all 91 Ukrainian drones were shot down, Putin was not at the residence, and no one was injured.

The problem is that no air alert was declared in the area, local residents did not hear any explosions that would normally accompany air defense operations and falling drone debris, and even the Russian military initially reported Ukrainian drone attacks in completely different areas — just not near Putin’s residence. Lavrov’s claims were also rejected by foreign intelligence services. It was merely another lie aimed at disrupting peace negotiations.

The second incident involved Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Legion fighting on Ukraine’s side. At the end of last year, reports emerged that he had been killed in a drone attack in the Zaporizhzhia region. A week later, however, it became clear that the report was false. It was part of a secret operation that had lasted for over a month. Russian intelligence services had ordered Kapustin’s assassination, but Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) learned about the plan. They staged a video showing an FPV drone attacking Kapustin near a vehicle. The footage was cut off at the moment of “impact.” Subsequently, another drone recorded the vehicle engulfed in flames. The Russian Legion announced that Kapustin had died and that they would avenge his death. Together with the drone footage, this served as proof, and the Russians paid the “perpetrator” half a million dollars. In reality, the money was collected by HUR, which later released a video showing Kapustin alive.

 A series of images of Su-27 aircraft from the Ukrainian 831st Myrhorod Tactical Aviation Brigade.

Russian Shame

While these two incidents brought a ridicule to Russia from abroad, throughout the entire month it brought shame upon itself through terrorist attacks on Ukrainian civilians. How else can one describe the deliberate bombing of energy infrastructure during severe frosts? The result was hundreds of thousands of residents left without electricity and heat.

At the end of the month, U.S. President Trump announced that the Russians would refrain from attacking energy infrastructure for one week, but even this truce was not fully observed. Moreover, during this period they attacked civilians in other ways. In frontline areas, they began targeting road traffic, including civilian buses. Deep inside Ukrainian territory, they targeted trains, with Shahed/Geran drones guided using Starlink terminals mounted on them.

The Ukrainian side is trying to retaliate against attacks on energy infrastructure, but its options are limited. The Belgorod region near the border is therefore a primary target, whose local officials have already complained that after every Russian attack on Kyiv, Ukrainian retaliation follows against them. They have asked why Russia does not first ensure air defense for its own border cities before shelling Ukrainian cities.

On the other hand, Ukrainians do not even need to strike deep into Russian territory. The Murmansk region in northern Russia was without power for several days after strong winds knocked down power line pylons. Those pylons dated back to the 1960s and had a service life of 40 years. They had already been operating a quarter-century beyond their intended lifespan. The money Russia spends on one large air raid on Kyiv would have been enough to repair the power lines and avoid the problem entirely.

A Russian attack on a civilian bus. The driver was killed, and two passengers were seriously injured.

This Russian Lancet drone missed its target. It was caught by a net stretched above the road.

One Sukhoi Less

Aside from mass drone, missile, and cruise missile attacks, little happened in the air. During the monitored period, Russia lost only one aircraft during a combat mission. On Wednesday, January 28, a Su-34 fighter-bomber crashed in the Kursk region. Rescue helicopters were immediately dispatched to search for the crew, but both pilots were killed.

For some time, reports circulated about the loss of two aircraft. On the same day, a Russian Su-30 was said to have disappeared from radar over the Black Sea near Snake Island. However, this was not confirmed by neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources.

 A Russian BM-35 drone attack on two Ukrainian Su-27 fighters in Myrhorod. In both cases, these were decommissioned aircraft without engines.

A Russian BM-35 drone attack on an F-16 at the Ukrainian Kanatove air base. Note the yellowed canopy and the squared engine intake. It is either a mock-up or a decommissioned aircraft.

Attacks On Decoys?

In the previous month, Ukrainians carried out a series of successful drone attacks on Russian airfields in Crimea. As it often happens in this war, when one side introduces something new, the other tries to develop countermeasures while also imitating the enemy’s tactics. This month, the Russians therefore launched drone attacks on Ukrainian airfields as well.

Only the attack on a small airfield near the village of Mala Vyska in the Kirovohrad region can be described as successful. Russian drones destroyed a Mi-24 helicopter and damaged a Mi-8 helicopter there. Video of the attack was published on Saturday, January 24.

At the end of the month, the Russians also released videos of BM-35 drone attacks on the Kanatove airfield in the Kirovohrad region and Myrhorod airfield in the Poltava region. However, these can easily be described as a waste of amunition. In Myrhorod, for example, two Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jets were hit. Both aircraft carried older camouflage and had their engines removed (their exhaust nozzles were missing). It can therefore be reasonably assumed that they were decommissioned aircraft that had already served as sources of spare parts. According to The Military Watch website, both fighters had been parked in the same location since August 2025 and September 2025 respectively.

The video from Kanatove Air Base is somewhat more interesting. It shows attacks on a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet. The first strike was not entirely successful; the drone hit the side wall of the shelter and made a hole in it but did not directly hit the aircraft. That only happened during the second attack. However, upon closer inspection, the F-16 shows several odd details. Its canopy appears yellowed, and it has several shape irregularities, such as squared sides of the intake under the fuselage. It is therefore either a mock-up or a decommissioned aircraft that was used for ground crew training and later became a decoy. Exactly such a decommissioned aircraft with a yellowed canopy stood behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2024 when he announced the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine.

 Zelensky in 2024 standing in front of an old F-16 fighter with a yellowed canopy. It was apparently a decommissioned aircraft delivered for ground crew training and spare parts.

Ukrainian Attacks in 2025

During the reporting period, the Ukrainian side did not announce any new attacks, but at the end of the month the SBU intelligence service released a video compilation of 15 successful attacks from 2025. Some were already known, but part of the footage was released for the first time. Some fall into the same category as the previous Russian attacks — wasting amunition on decommissioned aircraft.

This includes footage of a group of An-12 transport aircraft at Saky airfield in Crimea. These aircraft had been parked in the same location for more than 20 years.

Among the previously released and known footage are attacks on two Su-27 fighters and a Mi-8 helicopter. The video also includes two attacks on Mi-26 helicopters. One was known from last year, but the second appeared for the first time. Footage also appeared for the first time showing several attacks on Su-24 aircraft, one Su-30, a Mi-28 helicopter, and An-24 and An-26 transport aircraft.

 Previously unpublished footage of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Su-24M aircraft at Saky air base in Crimea. The footage comes from a video released by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU). It shows 15 attacks on Russian aircraft from 2025. In the last image, the Su-24M has a damaged tail, apparently from a previous drone strike.

A still from the SBU video, this time showing a Russian Naval Aviation Su-30SM at Saky air base.

This Mi-28NM helicopter at Kirovske air base also did not escape a strike. The image also comes from the SBU video.

Attacks on two Russian Mi-26 helicopters at Kirovske air base. The first case was previously known; the second was not.

Destruction of his Russian An-26 at Kirovske air base was confirmed.

The SBU video also showed an attack on a Russian An-24 in Simferopol.

A group of An-12 aircraft from the SBU video at Saky air base. These were decommissioned aircraft that had been parked at this location for more than 20 years.

Western F-16 Training Was Not Sufficient

During the monitored period, a video also appeared in which a Ukrainian F-16 pilot spoke about his combat experience. The basic message was that the training they underwent in the West was unsuitable for the Ukrainian battlefield, and the pilots had to develop their own tactics.

“When we returned home from training, we faced reality: the tactics we were taught abroad did not match the war we are fighting. These tactics were based on wars that our partners

had fought before. But this war is fundamentally different,” said the pilot in the video, whose identity was not disclosed.

Most of the pilots who participated in the first training groups had considerable experience, and after returning home they jointly developed new tactics on how best to destroy drones and cruise missiles, as well as how to strike the enemy near front lines saturated with air defense systems and hostile aircraft. According to him, the greatest threat comes from Russian fighters such as the Su-35, Su-57, and MiG-31. Practically every mission near the front line means that Ukrainian aircraft are targeted by Russian missiles, most frequently air-to-air missiles.

“They can remain in standby mode, fly at high altitude, and wait for our air groups. Unfortunately, we don’t have that advantage. We have to fly low to avoid the threat from surface-to-air systems,” the F-16 pilot said. To avoid Russian attacks, Ukrainian pilots use low-altitude maneuvering tactics. This creates numerous ground reflections and prevents Russian radars from locking onto them accurately.

During frontline missions, part of the F-16s forms an escort group. The strike group consists either of other F-16s armed with guided bombs or older aircraft such as MiG-29s or Su-27s. Sometimes F-16 pilots in the escort group deliberately expose themselves to enemy fighters, forcing them to fire and expend their missiles. This creates an opportunity for the strike group. The pilot recalls such a mission when he was in a three-aircraft group and they forced the enemy to launch missiles at them from two different directions, which they then had to outmaneuver.

“The result, however, was that we gave the strike aircraft the opportunity to destroy the target, and the entire group safely returned to base, back to our unit and families,” the pilot added.

 A Ukrainian F-16 fighter armed with GBU-39 SDB (Small Diameter Bomb) guided bombs.

Mirage Fighters Are Just Few

In addition to F-16s, the Ukrainian Air Force uses one more Western type. Some details about the Mirage 2000-5F fighters also emerged during the monitored period. It appears that Ukraine has so far received only three aircraft, one of which has already been lost in an accident. According to statements by French officials, however, the training of Ukrainian pilots is ongoing, and Ukraine should soon receive two more fighters.

The first photo has also appeared confirming that Ukrainian aircraft are armed with MICA EM missiles. In the image, a Mirage 2000-5F carries them under the fuselage. Under the wings it carries the large external fuel tanks, and on the outer wing pylons it carries Matra R.550 Magic 2 missiles. Until now, only photos showing these short-range Magic 2 missiles had been known. The MICA EM missiles are medium-range (reported at 60 to 80 km), which theoretically allows engagement of enemy aircraft as well. However, like the F-16s, Ukrainian Mirage 2000-5Fs primarily serve to destroy cruise missiles that Russia sends toward Ukrainian cities almost every night. In 2025, for example, there were only four days when no projectile was directed at Ukraine. In the remaining 361 days, it had to face drone, missile, and cruise missile attacks.

 A Ukrainian Mirage 2000-5F fighter armed with a MICA missile.

Cruise missile kill marking sported by a Mirage 2000-5F.

Against Drones

Most of these Russian projectiles consist of Shahed/Geran-type drones. Against them, Ukraine deploys a large number of assets that are cheaper than supersonic fighters. These include ground-based systems, where in addition to German Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, Ukraine has successfully modernized and deployed Soviet ZSU-23-4 Shilka vehicles armed with four 23 mm cannons.

Helicopters and light aircraft also engage the long-range drones. One of the deployed types is the twin-engine Antonov An-28 transport aircraft, about which we reported previously. Now, however, French television TF1 has published a report showing details of its combat use. The An-28 shoots down Shaheds with a six-barrel M134 Minigun mounted in the side door. And as many kill markings painted on the aircraft’s nose show, its crew has been very successful.

 German Gepard anti-aircraft tanks continue fighting the drones.

Soviet ZSU-23-4 Shilka systems, recently modernized by Ukraine, are also being used against drones. This vehicle was named “Aligator” and sports four kill markings.

In October 2025, the Ukrainian An-28 carried only three rows of kill markings on its nose…

…in the TF1 report, it already sports 117 of them.

The M134 Minigun mounted in the side door of an An-28.

Human Losses

In the end, allow me a rather bitter remark regarding occasional claims that model companies should not get involved in politics. But this is not about politics — it is about a war that harshly affects millions of innocent people including those model companies. And we are not talking about power outages and related problems that prevent them from work working.

In January, two employees of MikroMir company, being soldier as well, lost their lives. In the beginning of January, Oleksii Shvorak was buried. Two weeks later Kostyantyn Kolobov also fell while defending the independence of his country. He worked as a 3D designer for several companies, including AMP and DBMK. His last design For MikroMir was Junkers Ju 388 in 1/72 scale. Once released it will be his last work.

Sadly, he is survived by his wife Oksana and young son Mykola.

Our deepest condolences.

Kostyantyn Kolobov was a 3D designer who worked for MikroMir and other Ukrainian scale model companies. In January, he was killed defending his homeland.