Air War in Ukraine

Beriev A-50U in an propaganda image from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Demise of Giants

Text: Miro Barič

Photos:  Ukrainian armed forces, social media and other public sources

Beriev A-50, Ilyushin Il-22M, and Il-76M. These are three large aircraft that the Russian Air and Space Forces lost during the period covered by the current continuation of articles on the air war over Ukraine. The Il-22M, in the middle of these, managed to land at a base, but its damages are so extensive that it won't return to the air.

After a series of successful Ukrainian attacks disabled a significant portion of the Russian air defense radars in Crimea, the Russians deployed the Beriev A-50 early warning and control aircraft over the Sea of Azov from the beginning of January. The aircraft carries a large radar dish on its back with a range of about 600 km against airborne targets. The plane moved along the same route every day, flying oval patterns with dimensions of 20 x 50 km over the sea, culminating in the north near the coast close to the port of Berdyansk. This mistake allowed Ukrainians to set up a trap on the evening of Sunday, January 14, most likely using the Patriot system. The A-50 was shot down approximately 130 km from Ukrainian positions. PAC-2 missiles from the Patriot system have a range of about 160 km against aircraft. A fast and well-maneuvering fighter could likely avoid them at such a distance. However, a slow and high-flying target like the A-50 can be shot down even at the edge of the range.

 Firstly, it should be noted that Russia officially did not acknowledge any loss - as always. However, Ukrainians intercepted a report from the pilot of a Russian Su-30 fighter, who at that time and location observed the fall of a burning aircraft into the sea. Russian sources state that there were 12-15 crew members on board, and none of them survived. Details about these pilots gradually began to emerge on Russian social media. The first information released was the name of the aircraft commander, Colonel Vyacheslav Levchenko. His wife stated that she was informed that her husband, along with the entire crew, was missing. Levchenko was a prominent pilot, participating in a military parade in Moscow's Red Square in 2020.

Il-22M tail with the designation RF-95678 riddled with shrapnel.

 Later, the names of other crew members were added - Major M.A. Kvasov, who was the navigator of the aircraft, Major A.S. Shadrov, Captain D.A. Kutuzov, Captain M.S. Bolyasnikov, and First Lieutenant A.I. Izmaylov. This is not a complete list, as half of the names are still unknown. Relevant Russian channels initiated a donation to aid the families of the deceased pilots, indirectly confirming the loss of the aircraft.

 In the following information, various sources differ. Initially, it was stated that the shot-down aircraft had the designation RF-50601 and the fuselage number "red 50." According to later information, it was the A-50U with the designation RF-93966 and the fuselage number "red 37." It belonged to the 610th Center for Combat Training and Retraining of Air Personnel based in Ivanovo, northeast of Moscow.

 It is unknown how many usable A-50 aircraft remain in the Russian Air Force inventory - estimates range from two to eight. One was damaged earlier in February 2023 at the Belarusian Machulishchy airport. Local partisans hit the radar and electronic hump on the back of one A-50 with drones. The aircraft's fuselage itself was not damaged, and the plane later flew for repairs. What is certain is that after the latest loss, A-50s stopped operating over the Sea of Azov and relocated to the Rostov region beyond Russia's original borders. This means they are safe from Ukrainian missiles but also that the range into Ukrainian territory has decreased by about 200 km.

 Wreckage of Il-76M shot down near the village of Jablonovo. Notice the numerous holes from shrapnel.

Two at Once

 On the evening of January 14th, Ukrainians achieved a double hit. In addition to the A-50, they also hit the Il-22M, which was moving in its vicinity. This is a flying command and communication post based on the old four-engine IL-18 turboprop aircraft. Its role was to transmit information gathered by the A-50 crew further, as it has more powerful communication equipment for this purpose. The Il-22M was riddled with shrapnel after the hit, with engines hit and casualties on board. Despite this, it did not catch fire, remained airborne and landed at Anapa Airport in the Krasnodar Krai on the Russian side of the Sea of Azov. "I urgently request an ambulance and firefighters," was the pilot's emergency call, which was also intercepted by Ukrainians.

 Specifically, it was the Il-22M-11SURT with the designation RF-95678, belonging to the 1338th test center. Its commander, Major Viktor Klimov, succumbed to injuries caused by shrapnel. The second pilot was also injured but managed to make an emergency landing. According to Ukrainian sources, the second casualty on board was Colonel Burmistrov. Photographs of the tail of the aircraft, riddled with holes, were published. The aircraft is deemed irreparable.

 Su-34 during an emergency landing without the main landing gear. Note that the navigator is already "out."

Did it Carry POWs?

 The third giant that the Russian air force lost during the observed period was the Il-76M, which crashed on Wednesday, January 24th, near the village of Jablonove in the Belgorod region. There is a video capturing its demise. It shows a smoke cloud after the explosion of an anti-aircraft missile, the rapid descent of the aircraft, and a subsequent fiery explosion on the ground. However, the incident is surrounded by the greatest uncertainties of all three cases.

 Ukraine stated that the aircraft was carrying a load of missiles. According to some sources, it was in Iran the day before, returning through Saudi Arabian and Egyptian airspace and around Cyprus. Russia, however, declared that besides the crew, there were also 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war and three guards on board. The Russian secret service immediately cordoned off the crash site, not allowing civilian rescuers in. Only a few shots leaked showing wreckage of the aircraft but no dozens of corpses. On that day, a prisoner exchange was supposed to take place. The first exchange took place on January 3rd after a long hiatus that lasted until August 2023. 230 Ukrainians returned home, including defenders of Snake Island, 45 people who were considered dead, and six illegally detained civilians. In the opposite direction, 248 Russian prisoners set out. The exchange planned for January 24th did not take place after the Il-76 was shot down. Russian media released a list of prisoners who allegedly died on board the aircraft. However, it included 17 people who had already been exchanged on January 3rd - an obvious forgery.

 Moreover, the aircraft was heading away from Belgorod. It was shot down 60 km northeast of the city. If it was supposed to bring prisoners, why was it flying in the opposite direction?

 The Russian side stopped mentioning the allegedly killed prisoners after a few days, and exchanges of prisoners continued uninterrupted in the following months. According to all available information, it is more likely that there were no Ukrainians on board. Only the names of the six dead Il-76 crew members were published. They were Captain Stanislav Bezzubkin, Captain Alexey Vysokin, Officer Vadim Khmirev, Lieutenant Andrei Pilyev, Senior Warrant Officer Igor Sablinsky, and Sergeant Sergey Zhitenev. All six had a joint military funeral. There are some inconsistencies about the identity of the aircraft, but according to The Military Watch portal, it was the aircraft with the designation RF-82868 from the 117th regiment of the military transport aviation.

Non-Combat Losses

 In addition to the three giants, the Russian Air Force suffered several non-combat losses. At Chelyabinsk Shagol Airport in the Urals, a Ukrainian saboteur attempted to set a parked Su-34 fighter-bomber on fire. This occurred on January 3rd in the middle of the night using a Molotov cocktail inserted into the engine's intake. The incident was recorded entirely. The extent of the damage is unknown because the video ended when the fire ignited. However, for preventive reasons, the incident should necessitate an engine replacement, meaning the aircraft would be out of operation for some time.

 On Sunday, January 28th, footage of the emergency landing of another Su-34 was released. It is unclear where and when the incident occurred. The main landing gear did not deploy, and the aircraft landed only on the front landing gear. It can be seen that the navigator had already ejected before and landed on a parachute.

Russian Mi-8MTV-5 with the designation RF-92064 after a crash in the Bryansk region.

 During the observed period, there was also the emergency landing of a helicopter. An Mi-8MTV-5 with the designation RF-92064 and fuselage number "red 21" collided with power lines on Wednesday, January 17th, during a flight in the Russian Bryansk region. With a broken tail rotor boom, it ended up in a ditch next to the road, but the fuselage remained intact, and the crew escaped unharmed.

 At least some of these accidents are attributed to the war, leading to neglect of maintenance and increased stress and fatigue among pilots. The situation is even worse in Russian civil aviation. Sanctions prevent foreign companies from providing service and spare parts for aircraft used by Russian airlines, leading to an increase in malfunctions. The Wall Street Journal reported that while there were 36 incidents involving passenger aircraft in Russia in 2022, in 2023, there were at least 74. According to Ukrainian intelligence, based on secret data obtained from the Russian state authority Rosaviatsiya, the actual number of accidents in 2023 was much higher, exceeding 200. At the turn of the years, incidents occurred in Russia where passenger aircraft had to return, make emergency landings, or did not take off at all, practically every day.

 On the Ukrainian side, there was one loss during the observed period. On Friday, January 5th, during a combat flight, MiG-29 pilot Vladyslav Zalistovsky with the callsign "Blue Helmet" perished. He served in the 114th Tactical Aviation Brigade. He was 23 years old and had graduated from the aviation faculty of the National University of Air Force of Ivan Kozhedub in Kharkiv in 2021. The circumstances of his death are not known, but he was likely shot down.

 Ukrainian pilot Vladyslav Zalistovsky died on January 5 during a combat flight in the MiG-29. His callsign was "Blue Helmet."

Russian Air Raids

 The Russian bombing offensive against Ukrainian cities, which began at the end of December, continued into the second day of January. On Tuesday, January 2nd, early in the morning, the Russians released 35 Iranian Shahed drones to map the positions of the Ukrainian air defense. All 35 drones were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense.

 Subsequently, 16 Tu-95MS bombers took off, releasing 70 low-flying cruise missiles. MiG-31K aircraft launched 10 Kinzhal missiles, and Su-35s joined in with four Ch-31P missiles against radars. From ground launchers, the Russians fired 12 Iskander ballistic missiles and S-300 missiles.

Shahed drone shot down during Russian attacks on Ukraine.

 In total, Russia sent at least 134 missiles and drones to Ukraine. Ukraine claimed to have shot down 107 of them. Ukrainian air defense, for example, claimed the destruction of all 10 Kinzhal missiles. There is a video showing the fall of one of them into the Dnieper River near residential buildings. However, none of the Iskanders and Ch-31P missiles were shot down. On the contrary, 59 Ch-101 and Ch-555 low-flying cruise missiles were destroyed, as well as three Kalibr missiles launched from a ship or submarine. This was their first use since September of the previous year, indicating the deep crisis of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

 The Russian attack on January 2nd primarily targeted the Kyiv area in the morning, resulting in three dead and 27 injured. In the evening, the bombardment continued in Kharkiv, where a school building was hit.

 Unexploded Russian gliding bomb FAB-500, found in a field near Belgorod on January 3.

No collateral damage...

 However, not all Russian missiles reached Ukrainian territory. It is worth recalling the words of the Russian Armed Forces spokesperson from the conclusion of the previous part. In response to allegations (supported by photos and videos) that Russian missiles were destroying many civilian targets, at the end of December, he once again stated that Russian armed forces precisely target their objectives, and there is no collateral damage. Karma returned to him on the second day of January. In the Russian Voronezh region, approximately 150 km from the Ukrainian border, a powerful explosion shook a village early in the morning on Tuesday, January 2nd. The Russian army had to admit that "there was an abnormal release of aerial munitions over the village of Petropavlovka." The spokesperson also added that there were no losses. The second claim was not true. Local authorities initially stated that six houses were damaged, and four people were injured. When a video from the affected village appeared, they had to admit that nine houses were damaged, with four of them reduced to bare walls without roofs. Some Russian media later reported that four people died in the village. However, information spread on Russian social networks that the accident claimed as many as 11 lives and left 21 injured.

 On the next day, Wednesday, January 3rd, a glide bomb FAB-500 was found near Belgorod in Russia. With deployed wings, it landed in a field and did not explode.

 The same incident as in Petropavlovka was repeated in Russian-occupied Luhansk region in less than a week, on Monday, January 8th. This time, an aircraft dropped an FAB-250 bomb on the city of Rubizhne. Fortunately, no one was harmed. This is in response to the official Russian claim that "there is no collateral damage."

 In general, the intensity of the Russian bombing offensive has been decreasing. Most of the Kremlin's missiles were used up at the beginning of the month, and gradually, drones began to play a significant role again. However, Ukrainian air defense is also starting to wear out and is not achieving the same success as before. All too often, a significant portion of the enemy's attack assets penetrates the defense and hits targets. It seems that Ukrainian air defense also needs to conserve ammunition due to restricted deliveries from the West.

Pilot Su-30SM, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Chernobryvy, who died on January 6 during an attack on the command bunker at the Saki base.

Attacks on Russian Targets

 However, Ukraine did not wait for Russian airstrikes and initiated its own air offensive. On January 4th, Ukrainian pilots launched Storm Shadow low-flying missiles from Su-24M aircraft targeting locations in Yevpatoria and Sevastopol in the occupied Crimea. Radar systems and the communication center of the 31st air defense division were hit.

 The Ukrainian secret service released a video in early January showing the attack of its drones on two Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems near Belgorod. This was apparently in response to Russian claims that Ukrainians were attacking civilian targets in the Russian city of Belgorod. By the way, as mentioned in the previous section, residents of Belgorod were posting photos and videos showing rockets or their parts from Pantsir-S1 systems hitting their homes or yards.

 On January 5th and 6th, the Saki airbase in the occupied Crimea was repeatedly targeted. According to pro-Russian social media, the first attack killed 23 Russian soldiers. In the second attack, the penetrating warhead of the Storm Shadow missile destroyed an underground command post. The number of casualties varies in different sources, but it is confirmed that a lieutenant colonel, Alexander Chernobrivyy, died in the bunker. He was a Su-30SM pilot and deputy commander of the 43rd separate assault regiment of the Russian naval aviation.

Russian authorities released a photo of extinguishing the Usht-Luga gas terminal near St. Petersburg. A Ukrainian drone flew more than 1100 km to hit it.

 In addition to military bases, Ukrainians targeted Russian energy infrastructure. In January, at least four large oil and gas terminals used by Russia for exporting these raw materials were hit—from the oil terminal in Tuapse on the Black Sea coast to the gas terminal in Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea coast. The latter attack is noteworthy for its distance from Ukraine. Drones were operating near St. Petersburg, which is 1100 km from the Ukrainian border, for three consecutive days. If Emmental were a registered trademark, Russian air defense would probably have long faced a lawsuit for the abuse of a registered name—such is its porosity. Drone attacks on St. Petersburg culminated on January 21st in Ust-Luga. After the strike, a large fire broke out, forcing the terminal to suspend operations. In addition to attacks on terminals, fuel depots were also targeted. They were attacked on January 19th in the Bryansk region. Local authorities claimed that two drones were shot down, and no damage occurred. However, videos immediately showed several large fuel tanks in flames, with firefighters desperately trying to prevent the spread of the fire to other tankers.

 Ukrainians also targeted military production. On January 17th, there was a powerful explosion at a chemical plant in the city of Shakhty in the Rostov region. Two months earlier, a private company that collaborated with the Russian Ministry of Defense had rented premises in the factory for drone production. According to some sources, the building was hit by a missile, followed by an extensive fire. On Saturday, January 20th, Ukrainian drones targeted the cities of Tula, Orel, and Smolensk. The repair plant in Smolensk, which produces low-flying Ch-59 missiles, was attacked. One phenomenon that is worth mentioning is that during winter 2022/23, the Russians ridiculed Western Europe in a TV commercial claiming that without Russian gas, people would freeze to death and starve. The commercial showed scenes of a family having to eat their hamster and the like. Well, in Slovakia, we have a saying: "Whoever digs a pit for someone else falls into it themselves." Because exactly what the Russians predicted for Europe last winter happened to them this winter. A bit of this was also contributed by Ukrainians because on Wednesday, January 10th, there was a massive power outage in Omsk after an attack on a substation, and on Thursday, January 18th, something similar happened in Belgorod and Crimea. However, Russian infrastructure massively failed in January even without Ukrainian involvement. The reasons were freezing temperatures, poor maintenance due to inadequate funding caused by the transition to wartime production, and a shortage of personnel due to mobilization. The combination of these three factors caused one district heating pipeline after another to burst in Russia. Multi-family houses were flooded with water, which promptly froze. People couldn't stay in their homes, affecting not only neglected rural areas but also districts in Moscow.

 Fire at a fuel storage facility in the Bryansk region. According to the initial report from Russian authorities, there was no damage, and two Ukrainian drones were shot down, likely directly above the fuel tanks.

Propaganda in Action

 After Ukrainians claimed the shooting down of seven Russian planes in the Kherson region at the end of December (with at least four kills confirmed), there was a significant reduction in the aerial bombardment of Ukrainian outposts on the left bank of the Dnieper River in the first week of January. For the entire first week of January, only two bomb attacks were recorded, while Russians had sometimes dropped up to a hundred bombs daily before. Instead, Russian bombers shifted their focus to Avdiivka.

 But a tale that spread in Russian media is worth mentioning. A Russian pilot claimed that 12 Ukrainian F-16 fighters were shot down in the first week of 2024, and he personally shot down three of them. He stated that although the F-16 is a good aircraft, it belongs to the 1980s, while modern Russian aircraft have a clear advantage, with the Su-34 even surpassing them by two classes. The biggest problem with this story is that Ukraine doesn't have any F-16s. Pilot training is still ongoing, and the only report regarding F-16s in the observed period was that the Netherlands would deliver an additional six alongside the promised 18.

Mi-2AM-1 helicopter designed for the evacuation of the wounded. It is described with the names of people and company names that made donations to obtain these helicopters.

Mi-2MSB-1 medical evacuation helicopter made in Ukraine. Its medical equipment is from Switzerland. It can transport three lightly wounded individuals, or one severely wounded and two lightly wounded, or one patient in critical condition.