Aerial War in Ukraine
New footage of Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets.
Retreat from the Kursk Region and Global Chaos
Text: Miro Barič
In this continuation of the series, we cover events that occurred between March 1 and March 31. The fighting continued on land, at sea, and in the air—despite U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said that Russia is playing for time and stringing Trump along...
On the ground battlefield, the most significant events took place in Russia's Kursk region. Russian and North Korean troops finally managed a successful counteroffensive there, during which they recaptured the town of Sudzha. The Ukrainians had to withdraw from almost the entire Kursk region, retaining only two villages near the border. Drones played a key role in this Russian counteroffensive, particularly those with optical fibers that cannot be jammed. Using them, the Russians cut off Ukrainian supply lines, which was the main reason the Ukrainians had to retreat.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian armed forces launched a raid into Russia’s Belgorod region, where fighting took place in several border villages. At the same time, there were several successful counterattacks were launched, especially around the towns of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, as well as in other areas. As a result, the Russian advance in eastern Ukraine essentially stalled during the monitored period.
Does He Want Peace or Capitulation?
On the global stage, U.S. President Trump was the key player. The question is whether anyone, including himself, really knows what he’s doing. Consider the trade wars he has started with virtually the entire world—imposing tariffs in the morning, only to lift them by evening. And the next day, the cycle repeats... Even American companies are now speaking out against this chaos.
Practically the only country on which Trump hasn’t imposed additional tariffs is Russia. This might seem puzzling, but in the context of peace negotiations, it starts to make sense. He is demanding that Ukraine give up Crimea and other territories, and also abandon its ambitions to NATO membership. Additionally, he is pressuring Ukraine into an unfavorable agreement that would effectively hand over its mineral resources to the U.S. And what is he demanding from Russia, the aggressor in this war? Nothing... In fact, Trump’s administration has even begun efforts to halt investigations into Russian war crimes.
During the observed period, Ukraine agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Russia rejected it. Ukraine then agreed to at least a limited ceasefire concerning attacks on energy infrastructure and military operations in the Black Sea. Russia seemingly agreed too, but immediately began setting conditions, saying such a ceasefire was only possible if certain sanctions were lifted.
Both of these limited ceasefires are, from the start, more advantageous to Russia. Although Ukraine has long been facing attacks on its power plants and heating facilities, it has adapted to this situation. A mild winter and current warming trends also play in its favor. On the other hand, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries, fuel depots, and other oil infrastructure have significantly impacted the Kremlin. Last year, these attacks caused a 10 percent drop in Russian production, costing Moscow a great deal of money.
In the Black Sea as well, Ukraine holds a more advantageous position, making the ceasefire more beneficial to Russia. Ukrainian naval drones and cruise missile attacks have sunk many ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, forcing the remainder into ports in the eastern part of the sea. Despite regular Russian attacks, Ukraine has managed to resume grain exports on its own. Therefore, it is primarily Russia that is interested in free navigation.
Despite everything, Ukraine agreed to the U.S. ceasefire proposals without any further conditions. And who does Trump blame for obstructing a peace deal? Ukraine...
New footage of Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets.
Oil Infrastructure
As mentioned earlier, Ukrainian long-range drones continued attacking the Russian oil infrastructure during this reporting period. During the night of Tuesday, March 4, two Russian refineries were hit—one in Syzran and the other in Novoshakhtinsk. Both had been targeted in the past and had only recently resumed full operation. That same night, a pipeline in the Rostov region was also struck.
On Saturday, March 8, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery near St. Petersburg. Several drones also struck a cannery in Bryansk, which produced food rations for Russian troops. Ukrainians also continued their tactics of launching FPV drones from naval drones in the Black Sea, using them to destroy two Russian air defense systems along the coast.
On the night of Monday, March 10, the target was the Novokuybyshevsk refinery near Samara, which produces aviation fuel for strategic bombers.
The following night, Tuesday, March 11, Ukrainians carried out one of the most extensive attacks to date. They launched 337 drones at Russia, with 70 to 100 targeting Moscow and over 120 targeting the Kursk region. The drones hit railway facilities, fuel depots, and other infrastructure. Debris from intercepted drones and missiles from Russian air defenses damaged several homes in the suburbs of Moscow.
On Saturday, March 15, more than 100 drones again flew towards targets in Russia. A refinery belonging to Lukoil and a railway station near Volgograd were hit.
On Wednesday, March 19, the large Kavkazskaya fuel depot near Krasnodar was hit. It continued to burn and explode for nearly a week.
A daring operation took place during the night of Thursday, March 20, when Ukrainians attacked Engels-2 airbase near Saratov—home to the Russian strategic bombers used against Ukrainian cities. Ukraine had previously attacked this base several times. This time, kamikaze drones hit an ammunition depot. The Ukrainian General Staff later announced that 96 Kh-101 cruise missiles were destroyed in the strike. While the exact number is unknown, secondary explosions shook the area well into the next day. Unconfirmed reports later surfaced on social media stating that a Tu-95MS bomber was damaged, and its pilot Ilya Balkin and flight engineer Yevgeny Sidorov were killed.
A burning fuel depot in Kavkazskaya as seen in satellite imagery from Planet Labs PBC.
Explosion of an ammunition depot at the Russian Engels-2 air base.
Satellite image of Engels-2 air base by Maxar Technologies. The struck ammunition depot is in the upper right corner.
Close-up image from Maxar showing the ammunition depot hit at Engels-2.
Comparison of the depot before (top) and after the explosion, in Maxar images.
Civilian Targets
And what targets did Russia attack? On Friday, March 7 in the evening, it was the city center of Dobropillia in the Donetsk region. Rockets with cluster munitions struck the area. It was Russia’s infamous "double-tap" strike—launching a second wave to kill rescuers aiding victims of the first. The result: eight five-story apartment buildings were destroyed or damaged, and a shopping center was hit. Worse yet, 11 people were killed and 50 injured, including 7 children.
On Wednesday, March 12, a similar double-tap attack hit the city center of Kryvyi Rih. The target was the Druzhba Hotel. Once rescuers arrived, a second missile struck. Nine people were seriously injured. On the same day, an Iskander missile struck a cargo ship flying the flag of Barbados docked in the port of Odesa. Shrapnel killed four crew members.
Odesa was again targeted on Friday, March 21, when Russia launched 214 drones in three waves against four Ukrainian cities. Ukrainians shot down 114 drones; another 84 crashed due to jamming or were simply decoys designed to overwhelm air defenses. The attack on Odesa occurred during a visit by Czech President Petr Pavel. Drones struck a shopping center and residential buildings, killing two and injuring ten.
On Sunday, March 23, Russian drones again targeted multiple Ukrainian cities. In Kyiv, several high-rise apartment buildings were hit. In one of them, a man and his 5-year-old daughter—who had fled from Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region—were killed. The mother was the only survivor, injured and hospitalized.
On Saturday, March 29, Russia launched several ballistic missiles at Kryvyi Rih, hitting homes, a car wash, and a school, injuring seven. Kamikaze drones struck Dnipro, killing four people and injuring more than 20. Eleven homes, an auto shop, a hotel, and a restaurant were damaged. Russian propaganda then used its usual formula, claiming that “10 NATO officers and members of Ukraine's secret services who were celebrating at the restaurant” had been killed.
Center of the Ukrainian city of Dobropillia after a Russian attack on March 7, which killed 11 people.
On March 12, a Russian missile hit a civilian ship in Odesa killing four crew members.
On March 21 Odesa was also targeted, during a visit by Czech President Petr Pavel.
City of Dnipro in flames after a raid by the Russian kamikaze drones.
Russian drones often veer off course and crash due to electronic jamming or technical failure. This Shahed drone flew as far as Kazakhstan.
A “warhead” made of wooden slats inside a drone sent as a decoy to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
Mirage in Action for the First Time
One of the largest Russian air raids of the war occurred at the beginning of the reporting period but deserves its own section because, in addition to F-16s, French Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets took part in Ukrainian defense efforts for the first time.
On Friday, March 7, Russia launched a massive assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure: 194 Shahed drones and 67 missiles and cruise missiles. The missile group included 35 Kh-101/Kh-55s, 8 Kalibrs, 8 Kh-59/69s, 3 Iskander missiles, and 4 S-300 missiles used in a ground-to-ground mode. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 100 drones and 34 missiles. Another 86 drones crashed.
In Kharkiv, the attack damaged at least 30 homes, and in Poltava, a gas facility was hit. Two people were killed and 24 injured. After the attack, a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian Mirage 2000-5F fighter jet was published, showing the downing of one Russian cruise missile.
Just like the F-16s in their early days of deployment last year, the Mirage jets are now taking part in defense against Russian air raids. Their pilots are gaining valuable experience before participating in various types of missions.
A view from the cockpit of a Ukrainian Mirage 2000 fighter jet, which on March 7 shot down a Russian cruise missile.
First F-16 Combat
F-16s are now also striking Russian ground targets. During one mission in this reporting period, the first encounter with Russian fighters occurred — ending without a shootdown but showing the F-16's vulnerability due to the Russian air superiority.
It happened on Thursday, March 21, over Ukraine’s Sumy region. Russian military bloggers initially claimed to have shot down an F-16, but later corrected the record. According to Russian and Ukrainian sources, two Ukrainian aircraft (likely MiG-29s) loaded with bombs were escorted by one F-16. They flew at low altitude to evade Russian S-400 detection.
A Su-35 was patrolling high above and fired two long-range R-37 missiles at the group. The Ukrainian aircraft evaded them. As they turned to complete their bombing run, the Su-35 relayed targeting data to an S-400 battery, which launched multiple missiles. One locked onto the F-16. The Ukrainian pilot had to use onboard electronic countermeasures, flares, and extreme maneuvering to evade it. The missile eventually ran out of fuel.
Another „Black Day“ for Russia
The Ukrainian F-16 escaped the ambush, and Ukraine suffered no confirmed losses during this period. However, several older losses were confirmed.
Russia, meanwhile, lost multiple aircraft and helicopters in March. On Tuesday, March 18, a Mi-28 helicopter crashed during a training flight in the Leningrad region, killing both crew members, including Captain Ilya Vankovsky.
On Saturday, March 22, a video showed a Su-34 making an emergency belly landing at Lipetsk airbase after landing gear failure. The engine caught fire after losing a nozzle. The aircraft was likely irreparably damaged.
Footage of an emergency landing of a Russian Su-34 at the Lipetsk airbase.
On Monday, March 24, a Su-25 crashed in Russia’s Far East — the pilot ejected safely. That same day, four Russian helicopters were destroyed in Belgorod region when Ukrainian HIMARS rockets struck a temporary landing site near the town of Ivnya. A reconnaissance drone had spotted them. The GMLRS warheads, filled with tungsten balls, rendered the helicopters irreparable: one Mi-8MTV-5M (“red 54”), one Mi-28NM (“red 96”), and likely two Ka-52s.
Aftermath of the March 24 attack on four Russian helicopters — all were riddled with shrapnel and damaged beyond repair.
Russian Ministry of Defense photograph of a Mi-28 helicopter.
A wreckage of the Russian Mi-28 that crashed on March 18
Older Losses Confirmed
On Wednesday, March 19, Ukraine’s military intelligence released a video of FPV drone attacks launched from naval drones against targets in Crimea — including S-300 and Pantsir-S1 systems, as well as various radar stations. One clip shows a drone exploding next to a parked Mi-8 helicopter at Veseloje airbase. Satellite images confirmed the helicopter had been stationary since at least February 24, suggesting the strike occurred in February and left it irreparably damaged.
According to the analysis of published footage and satellite images by the Military Watch website, the Mi-8 helicopter had been parked in the same place since at least 24 February and had not moved for the entire following month. All the other helicopters disappeared from the base in mid-February and did not return. Previously, several had been present there every day. This suggests that the attack on Veseloye airport took place in February, and that the Mi-8 seen in the video was so badly damaged that it was left behind.
During the period under review, various losses on both sides were confirmed. For example, official documents state that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was damaged on 21 January this year. While flying at 220 km/h at an altitude of 200 metres, the helicopter began to rotate constantly to the left. When the pilot was unable to stop the rotation by steering, he attempted an emergency landing, resulting in a crash.
Ukrainian court documents show that, on 22 February this year, a Westland Sea King HU.5 helicopter with the tail number “White 51“, belonging to the 10th Naval Aviation Brigade, was seriously damaged (probably beyond repair). Due to a malfunction, the aircraft made an emergency landing near Mykolaiv (presumably at the Kulbakino airbase), sustaining damage and causing injuries ranging from minor to moderate to the crew members. This is the first loss of this type of helicopter in Ukrainian service.
Two further losses are evident in a documentary film released on Sunday 2 March. It shows the wrecks of two Su-25M1 aircraft with the tail numbers “Blue 21“ and “Blue 23“. The footage was shot at the Kulbakino base in autumn 2024. Both aircraft were destroyed prior to this date. However, the circumstances of their destruction remain unclear, as does the question of whether they were destroyed at the base or elsewhere and their wrecks were subsequently transported there.
Drone footage dated March 24 showing HIMARS rocket strikes on four Russian helicopters near the town of Ivnya in Belgorod region.
Wrecks of the Ukrainian Su-25M1 aircraft with tail numbers “blue 21” and “blue 23” at the Kulbakino airbase. The footage was filmed in fall 2024 and recently released in a documentary.