Air war over Ukraine
Russian drones over Poland
Text: Miro Barič
The biggest event during the period covered in this installment of the series (1 Sept. to 30 Sept.) was the massive violation of NATO airspace by Russian drones. It took place during the night of 9–10 Sept. in Poland. During a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine, about two dozen unmanned aerial vehicles continued westward. While, as always, Moscow made excuses, Warsaw’s officials say the Russian drones penetrated intentionally.
The alarm began on Tuesday 9 Sept. shortly before midnight and lasted roughly seven hours until the following morning. Poland closed the airports in Warsaw, Modlin, Rzeszów and Lublin and scrambled F-16 fighters. NATO allies also assisted — the Netherlands deployed F-35 fighters, Italy provided an airborne early warning and control aircraft, and Belgium sent an Airbus A330 MRTT tanker. Germany put its Patriot batteries stationed in Poland on the highest alert; they helped track the drones’ movements.
At least four drones were shot down by fighters. This was the first time NATO had destroyed Russian drones over its territory. A kill marking later appeared under the cockpit of F-35 F-027 from the Royal Netherlands Air Force’s 313 Squadron. Other drones crashed in various areas, mainly in eastern Poland. One, however, flew as far as a field near Mniszkówe in the Łódź Voivodeship in central Poland, and another was found near the village of Oleśno in the north of the country. Both thus flew hundreds of kilometres within Polish airspace.
Searching for drone wreckage took several days, and in the end as many as 21 were found. Some sources even give the number 23. Most likely, however, those counts also include two cases where AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles struck the ground. One of those air-to-air missiles, fired from a Polish F-16 after missing a drone, deviated from its trajectory and hit a house in the village of Wyryki-Wola. It heavily damaged the roof on impact but did not explode and no one was injured. Wreckage from the other AIM-120 was later found near the village of Choiny.
At least 17 of the drones recovered were the Russian Gerbera type; their serial numbers — found on the wrecks — are often known. Four drones could not be identified. At least two of those four were among those shot down and, after the explosion of the air-to-air missile, likely little remained to identify.
The Gerbera is a cheap drone with a wingspan of 2.5 metres. In shape it resembles the Iranian Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles, and at first it was used as a decoy to swamp Ukraine’s air defences. Later it began to be used for reconnaissance, electronic warfare and kamikaze missions with small amounts of explosives.
A Geran drone with serial number 31695 was found near the village of Oleśno in northern Poland.
A drone with serial number 32384 was found in Czosnówka, Lublin Voivodeship.
A Geran with serial number 32053 was found near the village of Rabiany.
A drone with serial number 31849 crashed near Nowe Miasto nad Pilicą.
During the repelling of a Russian drone incursion, a stray AIM-120 AMRAAM missile fell on a house in the village of Wyryki-Wola.20 AMRAAM.
An F-35 marked F-027 from the 313th Squadron of the Royal Netherlands Air Force, with a marking of a shot down drone.
Intentional or not?
None of the drones found in Poland carried explosives. All, however, were equipped with additional fuel tanks to extend their range. That is an important detail. Russian officials claimed (and Russian propaganda happily spread this claim) that Gerbera drones have a range of less than 700 km and could not have reached Poland from Russia. Therefore, they argued, Ukraine must have launched them to draw NATO into war with Russia. Russian officials and propaganda conveniently “forgot” to mention the additional fuel tanks in the drones.
Other Russian officials tacitly admitted the drones were theirs, but categorically denied they were launched into Poland intentionally. Belarus also contributed to the version of an unintentional incursion by warning Poland in advance that stray drones were heading its way. That was an exceptional step. Many drones have previously ended up over Belarusian territory after being disturbed by Ukrainian electronic-warfare systems. Some were shot down by Belarusian forces in the past, some penetrated further into Poland or the Baltics. However, a warning from Belarus came for the first time. Warsaw politely thanked Minsk for the warning but at the same time indicated it believed the warning was an attempt to create an alibi for later claims that the incursion was not intentional.
Polish officials publicly stated that the incursion was a deliberate violation of airspace by Russia. Previous single-drone incursions could be considered accidents; this time, however, around two dozen drones entered Poland at once — which is hard to regard as a mistake. Russia probably wanted to test NATO’s response and also to collect valuable electronic data during that response. Shortly thereafter, a large exercise involving Russian forces was beginning in Belarus, and this incident could have been part of it.
NATO’s response
Subsequently, Russian drones also appeared in Romanian airspace, and on Friday 19 Sept. three Russian MiG-31 aircraft violated Estonian airspace. They remained there for 12 minutes and NATO fighters had to escort them out. Both Estonia and, earlier, Poland requested consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, meaning they asked member states for consultations. In response NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry, intended to increase protection of the alliance’s eastern border.
Reinforcements from NATO member states headed to Poland — Sweden sent Gripen fighters, France sent three Rafale fighters, the Netherlands deployed air-defence systems, and the Czech Republic contributed three Mi-171 helicopters. Ukraine decided to help Poland with training on drone defence.
Unknown drones began to appear toward the end of the covered period over Denmark, Germany and other countries. NATO warned it would use force against intruders — drones or aircraft — and shoot them down if necessary. The European Union likewise decided to strengthen the defence of the eastern states and create a so-called “drone wall” there. Ukraine’s experience and technologies are to help in building it.
One of the new technologies are so-called drone interceptors — small drones designed to destroy other drones. Their key characteristic is high speed so they can quickly catch their target. Several types exist and, where used, they show promisingly high effectiveness, but there are not yet as many of them as would be needed. In the fight against Russian unmanned systems, Ukraine therefore still has to rely on conventional ground air defence and airborne assets. In this series we have described the deployment of fighters and also light training, sport and agricultural aircraft against drones. Now we will take a closer look at helicopters.
Helicopters with dozens of „kills“
Helicopters are beginning to appear as one of the most effective weapons against drones. This is evidenced by the score markings seen in many photographs. On the sides of helicopters are dozens of silhouettes of Shahed drones, as well as heavier reconnaissance drones that operate well behind the front line. There are so many silhouettes that on some helicopters space ran out and further “victories” are recorded only with simple tally marks.
Helicopters have several advantages in the fight against drones. They have enough speed to catch their target, but are not so fast as jet fighters, which risk colliding with drones. Light aircraft risk damage from detonations and drone debris when firing at Shaheds. Helicopters fly parallel to drones at similar speeds and usually a bit higher. They therefore operate from a position slightly behind and above the drone. If a Shahed explodes, the helicopter is in a space that is least exposed to its debris.
The Mi-24 has the advantage of a movable rotating 12.7 mm machine gun in the nose and target-searching and aiming equipment. Some versions carry a twin-barrel 30 mm cannon, with which they can engage Shaheds from greater distance.
Mi-8 helicopters have also proved effective against drones. They carry Soviet PKT or PKM machine guns of 7.62 mm in the nose or side windows. Ukraine began to upgrade its Mi-8s for counter-drone missions by installing American M134 Miniguns. These are also 7.62 mm but are rotary guns with a rate of fire of 3,000–6,000 rounds per minute, whereas the PK has only 500–800 rounds per minute. The Minigun therefore needs a shorter burst to shoot down a drone. Mi-8s also began receiving an optical station with day and night cameras mounted ahead of the front landing gear, and a searchlight to illuminate targets at night was added to their equipment.
A photograph also appeared of a light transport plane, the Antonov An-28, with a similar tally painted on its fuselage. This is a twin-engine turboprop which Ukrainians modified to a gunship. Most likely it too uses 7.62 mm machine guns in side windows or doors. However, a video has also surfaced implying the An-28 is firing a weapon mounted at the front; that cannot be confirmed because the published photograph does not show the aircraft’s nose.
At the same time, jokes began to spread comparing the Dutch F-35 fighter with a single kill marking to these helicopters or the An-28 with dozens of kills. Humor helps people to cope with stressful situations, but this comparison is not appropriate. If the F-35 had to face hundreds of drones every night, it too would rack up a large score.
Ex-Czech Mi-24 helicopters bearing numerous kill markings.
This Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter has a large number of Russian drones to its credit as well.
The Ukrainians also showcased a transport aircraft An-28, which they use as a gunship against drones.
The score is rising also for ground-based air defense systems. Unfortunately, this is due to the increasing intensity of Russian attacks.
Massive Air Raids
Unfortunately, this is the grim reality in Ukraine. It became clear on the night of Wednesday, September 3, when Russia launched 502 drones, 16 Kalibr missiles, and 8 Kh-101 cruise missiles. The main targets were in western Ukraine. Ukrainian defenses shot down 430 drones and 21 missiles. The remaining projectiles killed one person and wounded 35.
On the night of Thursday, September 4, another large-scale Russian air raid followed. Some Russian channels reported significant technical problems during the operation. Three Tu-160 bombers were supposed to participate, but only one managed to launch cruise missiles. The second was struck by lightning in flight and had to return to base; the third failed to take off. Despite that, the raid killed 15 people and injured 26. Two Russian drones also violated Polish airspace during this attack.
That same day, Russian forces committed another war crime — an Iskander missile strike on a group of Danish humanitarian workers clearing mines left by Russian troops in the Chernihiv region. The workers wore blue vests marking them as part of a humanitarian mission and used white civilian vehicles. The mission had been officially announced in advance via proper communication channels. The attack killed two people and injured eight. Russia cynically boasted about the strike in a video, calling it a “successful attack on enemy logistics.”
On the night of Friday, September 5, Russia launched 157 drones and seven missiles or cruise missiles, killing 11 people and injuring 32.
On Sunday, September 7, Russia once again broke its own record, launching a total of 818 drones and other projectiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 747 drones and four additional missiles. Four people were killed, including a young mother and her two-month-old baby in Kyiv. Forty-four others were wounded. A horse-riding club in Kyiv was also hit, killing three horses. For the first time, a Russian air raid struck a Ukrainian government building. It was initially believed that a drone hit the Cabinet of Ministers’ headquarters, but it was later confirmed to be an Iskander-K cruise missile. Its warhead did not detonate — the damage was caused by its kinetic impact and a subsequent fire from its fuel. During the same raid, one Russian drone again strayed into Poland and crashed 50 km from the Ukrainian border.
On the night of September 10, Russia launched 415 drones and 43 missiles or cruise missiles. The targets were infrastructure facilities in western and southern Ukraine. During this raid the incursion into Poland of about twenty drones occurred as described earlier in this article.
That same day, Russia committed another war crime. In the village of Yarova in the Donetsk region, a Russian aircraft dropped a guided bomb on a group of civilians waiting in line to receive pensions. Twenty-five people were killed, mostly local elderly residents. Among the dead were two postal workers responsible for distributing the pensions. Nineteen others were wounded.
On the night of Saturday, September 20, another major raid came. Nine Ukrainian regions were hit — Russia launched 579 drones, eight missiles, and 32 cruise missiles. Ukrainian defenses shot down 552 drones and 31 missiles or cruise missiles. One projectile carrying cluster munitions struck an apartment building in Dnipro, killing three people and injuring dozens.
The final major raid in the period occurred on the night of Sunday, September 28, when Russia launched 595 drones and 48 missiles or cruise missiles. Ukrainian defenses destroyed 611 out of 643 projectiles. The main target was Kyiv, where four people were killed, including a 12-year-old girl. The Cardiology Institute in Kyiv was also hit, killing one patient and a nurse and injuring 70 others.
During the September 7 air raid, a government building in Kyiv was hit for the very first time.
The Battle for Fuel Continues
During the observed period, Ukraine continued its attacks on Russia’s oil industry, which we covered in detail in the previous installment. Over three months (July, August, September), Ukrainian drones carried out 34 attacks on refineries (some of them multiple times). Between September 1 and 30, Ukrainians struck refineries 13 times. The Ilsky refinery was targeted twice, Saratov twice, and Salavat refinery in distant Bashkortostan twice as well.
In addition to refineries, Ukrainians targeted other facilities in Russia’s oil and gas industry, which finances the Kremlin’s war. A significant drone raid hit Primorsk near St. Petersburg, damaging an oil export terminal, pumping stations, and two oil tankers.
On Wednesday, September 24, Ukrainian naval and aerial drones attacked Russian Black Sea ports. Russia claimed to have neutralized at least five naval drones in Novorossiysk. Aerial drones damaged port infrastructure and started fires. In Tuapse, at least one naval drone penetrated the harbor (as confirmed by Russian videos) and exploded on a pier. Tuapse is also used for exporting Russian oil and gas.
Altogether, by the end of September, Ukrainian attacks had knocked out 40 percent of Russia’s fuel production. This caused growing gasoline shortages at fuel stations across many Russian regions.
Losses on Land and in the Air
Besides targeting oil infrastructure, Ukrainian drones also struck Russian radar systems and airfields in Crimea, gradually degrading the peninsula’s air defenses. Several helicopters and aircraft were destroyed on the ground.
On Sunday, September 21, Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a Nebo-U radar, two Mi-8 helicopters at a former border guard training base in Shkilne, and another Mi-8 at the Simferopol airfield. Videos of the attacks were released by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR). Satellite images and Russian footage confirmed that one helicopter in Shkilne burned completely, most likely belonging to the FSB Border Service. The fate of the other two helicopters is unclear.
On Monday, September 22, GUR released a video of another FPV drone strike — this time on Kača airbase in Crimea, targeting one Mi-8 helicopter and two Beriev Be-12 amphibious aircraft. The Be-12s were developed in the 1950s, but a few remain in service. After Russia’s 2022 invasion, reports suggested they were used for patrolling the Black Sea to detect Ukrainian naval drones. The aircraft in the video appeared derelict — one lacked a propeller. One Be-12 bore the number 08 on its fuselage. In the footage, the attacking drone seems to dive toward the ground in front of the plane, but the operator corrected its course at the last moment, and it apparently struck the side of the fuselage near the landing gear.
The third consecutive successful night for GUR came on Tuesday, September 23, when Kača airbase was again targeted. An Antonov An-26, registration RF-46878, fuselage code “Blue 30,” belonging to the 318th Independent Composite Aviation Regiment of the Russian Naval Air Force, was completely destroyed. The aircraft burned out after the strike. Another FPV drone targeted a second An-26, but the result of that attack remains unconfirmed.
The unfavorable chain of events for the Russian Air Force continued on Thursday, September 25, when a Su-34 fighter-bomber was shot down near the village of Vasylivka in the Zaporizhzhia region. One of the two crew members was killed. Russian channels identified him only by his first name, Yevgeny.
A spectacular feat was achieved by a Ukrainian FPV drone operator on Monday, September 29, who struck a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in flight near the village of Nadiivka in the Donetsk region. Some media reported this as the first such case in history, though Ukrainians had previously hit several Russian helicopters with drones — some were only damaged, but at least one crashed after being hit. That was the case this time as well. Russian sources reported that pilot Lt. Mikhail Avramenko attempted an emergency landing in the burning helicopter to save his crew. However, videos show the helicopter hitting the ground at high speed in flames, with the wreck sliding for dozens or even hundreds of meters. In the end, two crew members survived with injuries, while Avramenko and seven passengers were killed.
Russia also lost another aircraft in an accident during this period — at Kubinka Air Base, a Su-30SM or Su-35 fighter crashed during landing. The pilot, a colonel in the Russian Air Force, suffered severe injuries.
On the Ukrainian side, one combat loss was confirmed during this period. On Thursday, September 11, in the afternoon, a Su-27 fighter was shot down near Dobropillia in the Zaporizhzhia region. It was piloted by Major Oleksandr Borovyk of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade. He did not survive the crash.
On Wednesday, September 24, Russia launched a strike on the Kamyanka air base in Dnipro, destroying several light aircraft shelters. It is not known whether any aircraft were inside at the time.
Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jets.
A MiG-29 releasing guided bombs on Russian positions.
A MiG-29 from the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade with mission symbols.
This photo was published by the 114th Tactical Aviation Brigade. The MiG-29 likely originates from Poland and on its nose sports a painted image of a warrior with a spear.
One of the Russian Mi-8 helicopters attacked by Ukrainian FPV drones on September 21.
Attack on a Russian Mi-8 helicopter at the Kača air base in Crimea on September 22.
During the September 22 attack, this Be-12 seaplane, number 08, was also targeted.
View from the attacking FPV drone heading towards the second Be-12. Note that the seaplane is missing one propeller.
A Russian Antonov An-26, registration RF-46878, fuselage number “blue 30”, which burned after the September 23 attack.
Another Russian An-26 caught during the September 23 attack on the Kača air base.
A Russian Mi-8 moments before being hit by an FPV drone on September 29.
The burning Russian Mi-8 after being struck by the drone on September 29.
Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jets
Wreckage of the Ukrainian Su-27 that was shot down on September 11 near Dobropillia.
Major Oleksandr Borovyk was killed when his Su-27 was shot down.