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After the Ukrainian retreat, this bombing
began on the new defensive line and also near
Bachmut, where the Russians renewed their
efforts to advance westward. The number of
dropped bombs began to reach up to 100 daily,
and new glide bombs with a weight of up to
1500 kg appeared.
Russian Bombing and Losses
The insufficient deliveries of weapons and
ammunition also relate to Russia's ability to
bomb Avdiivka undisturbed for a long time.
Ukrainians do not have enough air defense
systems to effectively defend the entire front
line. Batteries of air defense systems were
moved to Avdiivka only in the second half of the
month to cover the end of the retreat. Among
them, the third battery of the Patriot system
stood out, which was supplied from Germany
at the end of last year. Ukraine previously had
two batteries, one deployed for the defense of
Kyiv and the other for the defense of Odessa.
The advantage of the third German battery is
that its individual components are mounted on
trucks. American Patriot systems are mounted
on trailers, and even the highly trained crew
takes 30-40 minutes to prepare them for
relocation. The German battery can be moved
almost immediately. According to Austrian
military expert Tom Cooper, Ukrainians
may have further divided this battery into
smaller components by adding other guidance
radars to several launchers. Based on the
FrankenSAM program, it may also include
radars from originally Soviet systems, such
as the S-300. This division of the battery into
smaller elements allows coverage of a larger
section of the front.
Ukrainians already announced the downing
of two Su-34s and one Su-35 on Saturday,
February 17th. Claims continued almost on
a daily basis - on February 18th, another
Su-34 was claimed, on February 19th, one
Su-34 and one Su-35, on February 21st,
another Su-34, on February 27th, two Su-34s,
and during February 29th, three Su-34s were
claimed consecutively. In total, twelve aircraft
were claimed to be shot down, but verifying
their downing poses a challenge. Russian social
media confirmed the loss of only two Su-35s.
Ukraine provided blurry videos as evidence of
the downing of two Su-34s. However, the fate
of the remaining eight claimed Sukhoi aircraft
remains uncertain. A definitive answer will
have to wait, similar to previous installments
of this series. In practically every part, some
photographic confirmation of loss from
previous months is mentioned - on both sides.
In the currently monitored period, damaged
Su-34s after emergency landings appeared in
footage, indicating events that surely occurred
sometime in the past, although it is unknown
which event they are linked to.
However, some insight into Russian losses
may be gleaned from satellite image analysis
of Russian airfields. It suggests that during
the period when Ukrainians claimed the
aforementioned shootdowns, six Su-34s did
not return to their bases.
Let's take a closer look at the confirmed
losses. On Saturday, February 17th, a Su-35
was shot down over eastern Ukraine.
Tail section of an A-50 that was shot down on February 23.
Major Valeriy Borovikov commanded the shot-down
A-50.
On February 11, in the Voronezh region, the
transportation of a crashed Su-34 was filmed.
The circumstances of the incident are unknown.
Ukrainian Su-25M1K with tail number "blue 21".
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INFO Eduard
31
April 2024